Kılıçdaroğlu Holds Polling Lead Over Erdogan Two Months From Election

According to a new poll, Incumbent Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is trailing Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu of the center left CHP party, and centrist National Alliance grouping of six opposition parties, ahead of the May 14 presidential elections.

• Europe Elects: "Kılıçdaroğlu (CHP-S&D): 53% (-4) Erdoğan (AKP~NI): 42% (-1) İnce (MP-*): 3% (new) Oğan (*): 2% (new)"
• Muharrem Ince, who lost to Erdoğan in the 2018, has entered polls with 3% of the vote, raising opposition concerns he could split the anti-Erdogan vote.
• Ince said people “don’t have to embed us in some alliance. Let’s see what our campaign will bring about,” and said his campaign and may decide upon a course of action “two days before the elections.”
• Eurativ warns: "Despite these promising poll numbers for the opposition, there are concerns about Turkey’s democratic record and whether Erdoğan will be willing to give up power if defeated. His administration has faced accusations of eroding democratic norms in recent years, with critics claiming that he has been consolidating power and cracking down on political opposition."

Figure 1: Turkish Presidential Election Poll (11-15 March)