Kilicdaroglu Leads Erdogan In First Poll As Opposition Candidate

The first opinion poll carried out with Kemal Kilicdaroglu as the presidential candidate for the main opposition alliance shows the Republican People's Party (CHP) head leading incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan by 56.8% to 43.2%. If this result were replicated in the election, tentatively scheduled for 14 May, it would see Erdogan defeated in the first round.

• ORC Poll-2023 Presidential Election Candidate Preferences, "Which candidate would you vote for in the Erdogan/Kılıçdaroğlu race?" Kılıçdaroğlu 56.8%, Erdogan 43.2%. Date: 4-6 March 2023. 1,850 respondents. It should be noted that the fieldwork for this poll was carried out prior to the official announcement of Kilicdaroglu's candidacy.
• It should also be noted that the poll offered only two options, despite the first round election being open to multiple candidates. The decision of the Kurdish-interest People's Democratic Party (HDP) remains crucial. If it puts forwards its own presidential candidate it could deny the Kilicdaroglu-led Nation Alliance the opportunity to inflict a first-round defeat on Erdogan.
• However, given the animosity between the Kurdish minority and Turkish nationalists in the Nation Alliance represented by Meral Aksener's Good Party (IYI), the HDP keeping its distance may help the Nation Alliance run a more cohesive campaign ahead of the first round with the HDP then calling on its voters to back Kilicdaroglu in a second-round run-off. This would be a risky strategy, given that Erdogan has won both previous elections in the first round with over 50% of the vote.