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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
TURKEY
Opinion polling ahead of the first round of the Turkish presidential election on 14 May shows united opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu either just above or just below the 50%+1 threshold that would see him defeat incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the first ballot, avoiding the need for a second round run-off.
- Latest ORC poll has Kilicdaroglu on 48.9% to Erdogan's 41.5%. Minor party candidates Muharrem Ince and Sinan Ogan hold 7.2% and 2.4% support respectively (fieldwork 7-11 Apr, 5,400 respondents).
- Of the 10 first-round polls released in April, Kilicdaroglu has led in seven, winning over 50% support in three of these. Meanwhile Erdogan has led in three, scoring over 50% support in one poll.
- Winning in the first round could prove crucial for the opposition. Of the five second-round polls between Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu released in April, the incumbent has led in three and challenger Kilicdaroglu in just two.
Chart 1. First Round Presidential Election Opinion Polling, % (From Launch of Official Election Campaign)
Source: ORC, Avrasya, Optimar, TAG, Saros, TekAr, MetroPoll, ASAL, Gezici, AREDA, Yoneylem, Artibir, Ankara Analititk, Themis, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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