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Kılıçdaroğlu With Tight Lead Over Erdoğan In 1st  Official Campaign Poll


The first presidential election opinion poll of the official campaign period (starting 10 March) shows joint opposition Nation Alliance candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu holding a narrow lead over incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. In the poll, Kılıçdaroğlu falls short of the 50%+1 of the vote in the 14 May first round required to avoid a run-off, which would take place on 28 May if required.

  • AR-G poll: Presidential election: Kılıçdaroğlu (Nation Alliance): 46% (+6), Erdoğan (AKP): 43%, İnce (MP): 8% (new), Oğan (ATA): 3% (new), +/- vs. September 2022 Fieldwork: March 2023, Sample size: 1,472
  • The opposition would have a much greater chance of ousting Erdoğan if it can secure the withdrawal of Muharrem İnce and his centre-left Kemalist Homeland Party (MP). İnce ran as the presidential candidate for Kılıçdaroğlu's centre-left Republican People's Party (CHP) in the last election in 2018, securing 30.6% of the vote in a divided field.
  • Speaking to reporters on 13 March, in response to implications that his candidacy could boost Erdoğan's chances, İnce stated that "There is no need for fuss. There are still 60 days left. Why do they want me to give up now? Let’s run our campaign and it will perhaps be me who will win. We will evaluate in accordance with the developments. Don’t worry, we won’t do anything to the disadvantage of Turkey. No need for pressure,”

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