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Labour Revisions: Softer Jobs & Wage Growth

CANADA DATA
  • Well-hidden revisions to the labour force survey for 1987-2022 show softer employment and wage growth than first thought in the latest three months of data but no material change for the u/e rate.
  • Employment growth was lowered to 69k in Dec (initial 104k) to leave a 3-month average of 55k (initial 74k) although similar downward revisions to labour force growth kept the unemployment rate at a historically low 5.0%, just one tenth higher than series lows from the summer.
  • More importantly, the recent trajectory for average hourly wage growth is notably softer, averaging 5.0% Y/Y through 2H22 and 4.8% Y/Y in Dec vs the previously seen 5.4% average and 5.1% in Dec.

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