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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
UK
As expected, the main opposition centre-left Labour Party comfortably held the Manchester seat of Stretford and Urmston in the 15 December by-election, winning 69.6% of the vote up 9.3% on the 2019 general election.
- While expectations for the centre-right Conservatives of PM Rishi Sunak were low, the 15.9% of the vote recorded - representing an 11.7% decline from 2019 - will be seen as an extremely poor.
- Adam Bienkov at Byline Times: "This is an even worse result for the Conservatives than current national polls suggest. The party now on just half the vote share it got in the seat in 1997."
- Betting markets now give a near 50% implied probability that Labour win an outright majority at the next general election, likely to take place in late-2024.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Next GE Outcome, %
Source: Smarkets
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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