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Last CPI Print Before Dec BoC Comes Into Focus

  • Next week’s CPI inflation for October (Nov 16) is the last CPI print before the Dec 12 BoC decision, pricing for which has tilted more towards a 25bp hike after the US CPI miss from a more balanced 25bp vs 50bp prior.
  • Governor Macklem noted yesterday some “tiny little green shoots” in the last couple CPI numbers.
  • Analyst expectations have a typically wide range: Bloomberg 'consensus’ of eight surveyed sees headline CPI dip from 6.9% to 6.8% Y/Y but has a range of 6.7-7.4% Y/Y.
  • Within that, CIBC look for a climb to 7.2% Y/Y, reflecting an increase in pump prices, whilst on the month they look for traditional core of ex food & energy remaining above a rate consistent with the 2% inflation target.

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