LDP Looks Set For Run-Off Following 29 Sep Leadership Vote: Japan Times

The Japan Times reporting that the leadership contest for the governing Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) looks set to head for a run-off between the two top placed candidates, with polls showing no single individual on course to win an outright majority in the 29 September round of voting.

• In the first round, the votes of party members and LDP parliamentarians hold equal weight, whereas in the run-off the balance is weighted towards the votes of LDP lawmakers.
• Taro Kono, the minister in charge of Japan's COVID-19 vaccination programme, sits as the frontrunner according to most opinion polls. The latest report from Mainichi states that Kono's team believes he has around 40% support among party members and 25% support among lawmakers. While this puts him in first place, it is well short of the 60% party members/40% lawmakers support that Kono envisages giving him a first-round victory.
• Given Kono's weak support among lawmakers, it could be seen that if the contest does go to a second round that his challenger could be better placed to win. At present, former Foreign Minster Fumio Kishida and protoge of former PM Abe Shinzo, Sanae Takaichi are viewed as battling for second place. Kishida has strong factional support and would likely emerge as the frontrunner if he makes it to the second round.
• However, should Kono perform well among party members only to be defeated by the party elite, it could lead to a public backlash against the LDP just ahead of the November legislative elections. These concerns could lead to lawmakers rallying around Kono come a run-off vote.