Le Pen Maintains Lead In Polling After Chaotic Political Summer

Marine Le Pen from the far-right National Rally has maintained her lead in the latest Ifop presidential election opinion poll. At present Le Pen leads the way in the first round with 34-35% of the vote according to the poll conducted 6-9 Sep. Her closest competition would come if centre-right Horizons party leader, former PM Edouard Philippe, ran for the centrist bloc with Philippe garnering 27% support to Le Pen's 34%.

• There is no outright second-round scenario polling in this survey, but when respondents were asked who they wish to see succeed President Emmanuel Macron, Le Pen came out on top again.
• Thirty-nine percent of respondents said they would want to see Le Pen become president, the highest replying in the affirmative for any candidate. Sixty-one percent said they would not want to see her in the Elysee Palace, the lowest negative reply for any hypothetical candidate.
• Philippe came in second with a 35%/65% split and former PM Gabriel Attal third on 33%/67%.
• The best response to any hypothetical candidate of the left was former President Francois Hollande on 15% positive, 85% negative.
• While there are still nearly three years to run for Macron's second term, the political instability in France over the summer has raised speculation of an early presidential election. Should the incoming Barnier gov't fall, Macron could take the extreme measure of resigning, triggering a snap election. As such, presidential polling will likely garner more political interest than it usually would so far from a scheduled election.