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Liberals Still Short Of Majority According To Latest Forecast

CANADA

The latest seat projection for Canada's House of Commons from 338Canada.com and Maclean's shows Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's centre-left Liberal Party just short of the 169 seats required for an outright majority.

  • Updated @338Canada Federal Model: Liberal Party of Canada: 163 (+6), Conservative Party of Canada: 114 (-7), New Democratic Party: 32 (+8), Bloc Quebecois: 26 (-6), Green Party of Canada: 2 (-1), Independent: 1. (Seat changes with 2019 Election)
Chart of Canadian House of Commons Seats based on 338Canada.com Projections

Source: 338Canada.com, Macleans, MNI. N.b. Dashed line indicates 169 seats required for a majority.

  • There has been sustained speculation that PM Trudeau may dissolve parliament early in the summer or autumn of 2021 to hold a snap general election in order to try to win a majority for his Liberal Party.
  • Currently the Liberals govern as a minority administration supported by the left-wing New Democratic Party.
  • While most polls show the Liberals with a comfortable lead over Erin O'Toole's centre-right Conservatives, the close nature of seat projections such as this could dissuade Trudeau from taking the gamble on an early vote.

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