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Limited Rally After Yesterday’s Substantial Hike Repricing

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys rally modestly as they largely consolidate yesterday’s sell-off on substantial re-pricing of rate hike expectations, which began earlier in the day before driving further on Powell indicating close to policy continuation.
  • 2YY -1.6bps at 1.496%, 5YY -1.0bps at 1.745%, 10YY -2.2bps at 1.854%, 30YY -2.0bps at 2.228%. This sees the curve broadly hold onto yesterday’s new recent flats of ~35bps (although it did fleetingly touch 31bps).
  • TYM2 is up 4 ticks on the day at 127-13 with soft volumes. After some large swings, it sits comfortably below resistance of 128-31+ (Mar 1) and above initial firm support from the 20-day EMA of 126-30.
  • Fedspeak: Powell testimony to the Senate (1000ET), followed by NY Fed’s Williams (permanent voter) late on at 1800ET.
  • Data: Some of the more important releases today include finalised ULCs, Markit PMIs and ISM Services plus factory orders, all before tomorrow’s payrolls.
  • NY Fed buy-op: Tsy 7Y-10Y, appr $1.625B vs. $3.225 prior (1120ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $45B 4W, $35B 8W bill auctions (1130ET)

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