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Local Analyst Takes On CPI

CANADA
  • BMO: Headline likely retreats next month but remains quite lofty through 2H22 and the Bank will be grappling with underlying inflation settling into about a 5% clip. We [still] expect the Bank to continue hiking in Sep, albeit with a more moderate 50bps.
  • CIBC: The Bank will get another CPI reading before its Sep decision, and will still be deciding between 50 and 75bps, but today’s CPI may increase the chance they choose 50bps. But for now, we still believe 75bps is more likely.
  • RBC: Evidence is building that headline inflation is close to peaking, but broader price pressures will still need more BoC rate hikes to fully contain. We look for the BoC to hike the overnight rate to 3.25% by October [2.5% currently] and for that to push the economy into a moderate contraction next year.
  • TD: A meaningful deceleration in the monthly numbers but Y/Y numbers should remain uncomfortably elevated through 2022. The Bank is set to continue hiking at an aggressive clip in Sep with markets expecting upwards of 75bps and the policy rate ending the year at 3.5-3.75%, maintaining support for 10Y GoCs around 3%.
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