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Local Analysts Post CPI [2/2]

CANADA
  • RBC: The BoC’s preferred core measures – CPI trim and median and the newly introduced “super core” or CPI trim services ex-shelter - all slowed modestly, averaging 3.6% annualized over the last three months. Core CPI readings are expected to return back to around 3% by the end of this year and the BoC is expected to stay on the sideline at 4.5% until that happens.
  • Scotia: Canadian core inflation remains sticky and persistently above the BoC’s 2% headline target with no evidence of continued progress: two of the three core measures picked up and the third one slipped with all of them continuing to rest at 3% or higher (trim, median and traditional core). It reaffirms Gov Macklem’s stance that the easy part of getting inflation lower has passed and now we’re left with the more persistent pressures that are not building upon prior progress.
  • TD: Our measure of "supercore" inflation, a measure of demand-sensitive services prices, ticked up slightly from 6.2% to 6.3% Y/Y. Its persistently high level speaks to the challenge Gov Macklem talked about last week in bringing inflation all the way back to 2%. This suggests that the BoC needs to remain vigilant to inflation pressures, and may need to hike again if momentum in the domestic economy does not cool as expected.
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