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Long USD Trade Remains 'Moderately Crowded' Despite Elevated Risk Aversion

FOREX
  • Net long USD specs decreased slightly in the week ended August 2nd, down by 9.3K to a total of 206.3K contacts.
  • Interestingly, the 'Long USD Trade' remains 'moderately crowded' despite the elevated level of risk aversion in recent months (with the US Dollar trading at 20Y highs).
  • Last month was marked a significant consolidation in the greenback, mostly driven by an easing of the scale of rate hike speculation from the Fed meeting on July 27.
  • The DXY index consolidated from a high of 109.29 to find support at its 50DMA last week.
  • Despite sell-side firms turning moderately to significantly 'bearish' on the US Dollar for the next year (median forecast for Q2 23 at 1.08), market uncertainty could continue to keep demand for 'safe assets' such as the USD elevated in the near term.
  • ST resistance to watch on DXY index stands at 107.43, followed by 108.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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