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Macron-Led Alliance Retakes Lead In Latest Legislative Election Poll

FRANCE

The latest opinion poll from Ifop ahead of the 12/19 June legislative election shows President Emmanuel Macron's centrist Ensemble! alliance retaking the lead from the leftist NUPES alliance.

  • Ensemble: 27 % (+1), NUPES: 25 % (-2), Rassembelement National (RN): 21 % (-2), Les Republicains and allies: 10 % (-1), Reconquest: 6 %, Miscellaneous left: 4 %.IFOP, 28/05/22. Chgs w/13-16 May,
  • Seat Projection: Ensemble: 275-310, NUPES: 170-205, LR & allies: 35-55, RN: 20-50, Reconquest: 1-4, Others: 8-15. IFOP, 28/05/22.
  • A total of 289 seats are required to command a majority in the National Assembly. This means that should Macron's bloc's seat total fall at the bottom end of their projection estimate it would be short of a majority and reliant on support from other parties.
  • The likelihood remains that the next gov't will be led by Ensemble, with the leftist NUPES (comprising Jean-Luc Melenchon's La France Insoumise, and the Communist, Green, and Socialist parties) unlikely to be able to pull together enough support from other representatives (who are all likely to come from the centre-right or right) to overtake Ensemble.
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