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Macron Maintains Polling Lead But 2nd Round Opponent Still Uncertain


Latest opinion polling from Ifop-Fiducial shows President Emmanuel Macron maintaing a lead over his two most likely opponents in a second round run-off. In the first round, right-winger Marine Le Pen and centre-right Gaullist Valerie Pecresse are almost neck-and-neck, with Le Pen holding a slender lead at present.

  • First Round: Macron (LREM) : 24%, Le Pen (RN): 17.5% (+0.5), Pécresse (LR): 16.5%, Zemmour : 13.5%
  • Second Round: Emmanuel Macron (LREM): 55% (-1.5), Marine Le Pen (RN): 45% (+1.5)
  • Second Round: Emmanuel Macron (LREM): 54% (-0.5), Valerie Pecresse (LR): 46% (+1.5). Ifop-Fiducial. All fieldwork 31 January. Chgs w/ 27 January.
  • With the first round of the presidential election approaching (10 April), at present the most likely scenario seems to be a repeat of the 2017 second round, with Macron and Le Pen facing off. However, Le Pen and Pecresse have consistently been within the margin of error, with the two often separated by around 1%. Far-right polemicist Eric Zemmour, after a surge in support in autumn 2021, has faded and now consistently sits in fourth place with the gap between he and the two candidates in second and third place usually outside the margin of error.

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