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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
FRANCE
The latest daily polling from Ifop-Fiducial shows President Emmanuel Macron marginally extenting his lead over right-wing Rassemblement National (RN) leader Marine Le Pen. Crucially, the polling also shows Macron winning over more voters who opted for far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon in the first round that Le Pen does.
- Ifop-Fiducial poll: Presidential run-off election Macron (EC-RE): 52.5% (+0.5), Le Pen (RN-ID): 47.5% (-0.5), +/- vs. 5 - 8 April. Fieldwork: 10 - 11 April 2022. Sample size: 1,003
- One of the deciding factors of the second round election will be how those voters who opted for Melenchon in the first round decide to vote in the second. At present, polls point in a positive direction for Macron. Melenchon secured an outperforming 22% of the vote in the first round. Of these, 39% stated that they would switch their votes to Macron, compared to 20% to Le Pen (41% said they would not vote).
- Supporters of green candidate Yannick Jadot and Gaullist conservative Valerie Pecresse also break more strongly towards Macron than Le Pen (by 39% and 43% to 18% and 24% respectively), but the combined support for these candidates came to just 9.4%.
- The overwhelming shift from supporters for far-right winger Eric Zemmour to Le Pen (85% saying they will switch to the RN leader) is not a surprise, but given that Zemmour only won 7.1% of the vote in the first round this is unlikely to outweigh the stronger shift to Macron among supporters of unsuccessful centrist and leftist candidates.
Chart 1. How voters for unsuccessful candidates in first round will vote in second round? (%)
Source: Ifop-Fiducial, Fieldwork 10-11 April.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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