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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
FRANCE
The implied probability of incumbent President Emmaneul Macron winning re-election in the 24 April run-off has spiked following his strong performance in the 10 April fist round election. Data from Smarkets shows the implied probability of him remaining in office according to betting markets has risen from 72.5% on 10 April ahead of the release of results to 86.2% at the time of writing.
- Macron outperformed polls, winning 27.6% of the vote. This compares to the 24.0% he won in the 2017 first round. Right-wing Rassemblement National leader Marine Le Pen came in second with 23.4%, a marginal improvement on her 21.3% secured in the 2017 first round.
- Le Pen's implied probability of winning has fallen from a peak of 26.3% on 10 April to 14.7% at the time of writing.
Chart 1. Implied Probability of Winning French Presidential Election, %
Source: Smarkets
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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