Major Missile Attack Reported, Concerns Of Russia Offensive Mount

Air raid sirens have sounded across the whole of Ukraine as Russia launches a massive missile barrage. Reports of explosions in Kyiv, Kharkhiv, Kremenchuk as well as at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant on wires. The attack comes as concerns escalate in Kyiv and among its allies that Russia could be about to begin a major offensive in the east of the country. An attack now would avoid the potential logistical difficulties posed in spring by the thaw, as well as engage Ukrainian forces before they have taken possession of large number of advanced western main battle tanks.

• On 9 Feb, director general of Rosatom met with the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) regarding plance for a safety zone around the Zaphorizhzhia NPP. It appears that despite warm words from the Rosatom head, the Russian military has continued to judge the NPP as a battle site.
• A report from the Institute for the Study of War argues an offensive is already underway, “The commitment of significant elements of at least three major Russian divisions to offensive operations in this sector indicates the Russian offensive has begun, even if Ukrainian forces are so far preventing Russian forces from securing significant gains,”