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Market Roundup: Keeping Close Eye on Geopolitical Headlines

US TSYS

Tsy futures currently off late overnight lows (USM2 holding steady, 30YY at 2.3827%), markets remain on edge due to geopolitical headlines tied to Russia/Ukraine this morning.

  • Russia Pres Putin headlines re: "positive shifts" in Ukraine talks spurred fast risk-on move w/ Tsys gapping lower, stocks surged, Gold extends lower, support in crude fading.
  • Continued headline risk: Reuters headline cites Ukraine Pres Zelensky that "Ukraine has reached a strategic turning point in war". Market not sure how to take that, but rates holding near lows.
  • Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba appears on Bloomberg TV at 1130ET, likely to address the headlines that moved markets earlier.
  • Cross asset update: SPX eminis +0.75% at 4279.75 (+32.0); West Texas Crude (WTI) +.3% at 106.35 (+0.32); Gold -1.63% at 1964.99 (-32.49).
  • Tsy Technicals for TYM2: Treasuries remain softer following this week’s bear cycle. The contract has breached 126-10, 76.4% of the Feb 10 - Mar 7 rally. The move through this level strengthens a bearish threat and while the pullback is considered corrective, there is potential for a deeper pullback.
  • The next support to watch is the key support and bear trigger at 125-14+. A break would instead confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend.
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