Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Edges Lower

Front month TTF recouped some earlier losses but is still trading lower on the day amid high stocks, ample supply and low demand due to mild weather.

• TTF MAR 24 down -0.7% at 25.27€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 down -0.5% at 26€/MWh
• The latest weather forecast still shows warm temperatures this week but NW and central Europe are seeing a slight cooling trend into next week back towards normal in the last week of the month.
• France’s natural gas consumption fell to the lowest level in six weeks to 9.4TWh in the week to 11 February, down from 10.4TWh a week earlier, GRTgaz data showed.
• European natural gas storage levels are at the previous five year range highs at 66.58% full on Feb 12 according to GIE data compared to the seasonal five year average of 51.3%. Net withdrawals rose on Jan 12 but rates remain below normal.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are relatively unchanged during this week and nominated at 344.3mcm/d today.
• European LNG sendout was up at the highest so far this month at 345mcm/d on Feb 12 but still below an average of 386mcm/d seen in Jan.
• The LNG tanker Arctic Aurora is arriving at Inkoo, Finland on 14 February, a day late after strong winds caused delays according to ICIS.
• The Biden Administration pause on approvals of new LNG export projects will not have an impact on US LNG supplies to Europe in the next two or three years according to a European Commission Executive Vice President Maros Sefcovic.
• Global LNG demand is expected to continue to grow into 2040 while global natural gas demand is expected to peak after 2040, driven by China and other Asian counties according to Shell.
• LNG stockpiles held by Japanese utilities fell by 10% last week to 2.06mn tons as of 11 February, the lowest since early October, according to data released by the trade ministry.
• Indonesia’s Tangguh LNG facility has shut its train 3 due to technical issues, according to to SKK Migas cited by Bloomberg.