Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Rebounds Slightly

Front month TTF is trading higher today after falling to the lowest since mid-July earlier this week, driven by ample supplies, above normal storages, mild weather and muted demand. Weather and supply risks due to ongoing Middle Eastern conflict remain the main upside risks to prices.

• TTF MAR 24 up 2% at 25.35€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 up 1.7% at 25.98€/MWh
• The European weather forecast remains above normal for the coming week but the current forecast suggests a slight cooling trend towards normal at the end of the month.
• German weekly natural gas consumption stood 34% below the 2018-2021 average last week, amid lower heating demand due to significantly milder than average weather, Bnetza data showed.
• Net European gas storage withdrawals remain below normal to maintain overall stores up at the previous five year range highs at 66.22% full on Feb 13 according to GIE data compared to the seasonal five year average of 50.76%.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are relatively unchanged at 343.7mcm/d today but are expected to dip at the weekend with a planned outage reducing Karsto capacity by 12.1mcmn/d from Feb 17.
• The EU sees no need to extend the agreement to transport Russian natural gas to Europe via Ukraine that is planned to expire end-2024, as member states can source alternative supply, EU Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson said.
• Russia’s gas production volumes hit a low point in 2023, but are likely to see an uptick in 2024, according to Viktor Katona, lead crude analyst at Kpler, cited by Bloomberg.
• European LNG sendout was up again slightly to 352mcm/d on Feb 13 compared to an average of 336mcm/d so far in Feb.
• The Castillo de Santisteban has been diverting away from the Fos terminal in southern France to delivery to the Isle of Grain in the UK instead, likely because industrial action is limiting sendout from the Fos terminal according to ICIS LNG Edge.
• Italy’s Edison has rescheduled Qatari LNG arrivals through end of April, given the longer journey time around the Cape of Good Hope, Chief Executive Nicola Monti said on Tuesday, cited by Reuters.
• South Korean LNG demand is forecast to be 3% lower on the year at 17.7mn tons this summer as high storage levels limit injection demand, outweighing expected gains in residential and commercial gas demand according to BNEF.
• An extended US LNG project approval ban would have an impact on the fast-growing global market according to Steve Hill, who heads Shell's LNG, gas and power division.
• Republican law makers in opposition to Biden’s pause on LNG export approvals said the US House of Representatives will vote on Friday on a bill to take those approvals out of the hands of the DoE.