Mid-Day Oil Summary: Crude Extends Gains

Crude markets are extending gains throughout the session supported by a weaker US dollar and rising speculation that the OPEC+ group could extend or deepen output cuts during the next meeting. Latest Middle East tensions are also posing an upside risk to prices.

• Brent JAN 24 up 1.6% at 81.87$/bbl
• WTI DEC 23 up 1.5% at 77.05$/bbl
• Gasoil DEC 23 up 1.1% at 814.5$/mt
• WTI-Brent down -0.09$/bbl at -4.6$/bbl
• Middle East tensions are still an upside risk to prices with shipping in focus after Iran-backed Houthi Rebels seized a Japanese chartered vessel in the Red Sea on Sunday according to Bloomberg. Iran denied its role in the seizure of the ship.
• Venezuela will not accept "ultimatums from anyone" according to Venezuela's National Assembly President Jorge Rodriguez after the US warned it will assess eased sanctions relief if fair election progress is not made.
• Brent is expected to remain largely flat in 2024 and fall by 10% in 2025 on looser oil balances according to JPMorgan.
• Crude floating storage stationery for at least seven days rose 24% w/w to 87.98mbbls as of November 17 according to Vortexa with the Middle East up to the highest since August.
• China's crude imports from Russia - including supplies via pipelines and seaborne shipments - totalled 8.54 million metric tons in October, or 2.01mn bpd, according to data from the General Administration of Customs, 5.6% below September's level of 2.13 mn bpd.
• Chinese gasoline exports slipped to 770,000 tons in October, down from 1.09 million tons in September and compares to 1 mn tons last October according to General Administration of Customs data.
• Chinese fuel oil imports rebounded in October to 1.81mn tons, up from 1.04mn tons in September, which marked a one-year low, customs data showed.
• Refined oil production in China is estimated to decline 4.3m tonnes or 10.8% m-o-m in November while CDU capacity utilization rates fall 4% to 71.6% according to OilChem.
• Diesel cracks are trading higher after falling late on Friday to reverse some of the gains seen earlier in the week after a large draw in US inventories in the last couple of weeks. Gasoline cracks are holding onto gains seen in recent weeks as the Russian government plans has lifted the ban on gasoline exports from 17 November as supplies in the domestic market have improved.
  • US gasoline crack up 0.2$/bbl at 16.07$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack up 1.2$/bbl at 41.36$/bbl