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MIDTERMS: Door Remains Ajar For Democrats In The House

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ABC News has called two key races in favour of Democrats, leaving the door ever so slightly ajar for a shock Democrat retention of the lower chamber.

  • FiveThirtyEight: "Democrat Yadira Caraveo is projected to win Colorado’s 8th Congressional District [over Republican Barbara Kirkmeyer]. This is a big upset — Caraveo had just a 9-in-100 chance of winning in our final House forecast."
  • New Mexico's 2nd District
    • Democrat Gabriel Vasquez has unseated Republican incumbent rep Yvette Herrell (R-NM).
  • Republican are still on track to take control of the House but the final seven seats required for a majority are proving elusive. As it stands, the GOP is current ahead in seven races as counting continues.
  • Betting exchange Smarkets current assigns the GOP with a 89% implied probability of flipping the House. This is same implied probability assigned to Democrats for winning the Senate, which will likely be decided by an unpredictable runoff race in Georgia.

Chart 1: State of Play in the House (ABC News)

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ABC News has called two key races in favour of Democrats, leaving the door ever so slightly ajar for a shock Democrat retention of the lower chamber.

  • FiveThirtyEight: "Democrat Yadira Caraveo is projected to win Colorado’s 8th Congressional District [over Republican Barbara Kirkmeyer]. This is a big upset — Caraveo had just a 9-in-100 chance of winning in our final House forecast."
  • New Mexico's 2nd District
    • Democrat Gabriel Vasquez has unseated Republican incumbent rep Yvette Herrell (R-NM).
  • Republican are still on track to take control of the House but the final seven seats required for a majority are proving elusive. As it stands, the GOP is current ahead in seven races as counting continues.
  • Betting exchange Smarkets current assigns the GOP with a 89% implied probability of flipping the House. This is same implied probability assigned to Democrats for winning the Senate, which will likely be decided by an unpredictable runoff race in Georgia.

Chart 1: State of Play in the House (ABC News)