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Mixed Analyst Summaries From Q3 GDP Data

CANADA
  • BMO: Despite the details for Q3 and monthlies coming in a bit weak, the big upward historical revisions mean the economy is substantially larger than previously thought. There's nothing here to keep the BoC from hiking 50bps in Dec.
  • CIBC: The rise in inventory ratios and weakness in domestic demand should be a signpost of weaker domestically-driven inflationary pressures in the future. We continue to expect a final 50bp hike to a peak 4.25%, before the Bank holds in 2023 to observe how the economy is coping with higher interest rates.
  • National: The report shows a significant moderation in domestic demand which should remain weak in the coming months in a context of extremely restrictive monetary policy.
  • RBC: Some early signs that broader inflation pressures have started to ease, and indications that domestic demand is softening, mean the BoC could be close to the end of the current hiking cycle. But today's data remains consistent with our own outlook for softer GDP growth in Q4 and a 'moderate' contraction in output in 1H23.
  • Scotia: Q3 GDP growth doubles BoC and consensus forecasts, pushing the economy further into excess demand and with the positive surprise adding to the likelihood of +50bps & open bias next week.
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