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January 31, 2024 16:25 GMT
Mixed Analyst Takes On Today’s GDP Data
CANADA
- BMO: “This solid result, after a long dry spell for growth, affords policymakers the ability to gently push back on easing chatter, as they wait for underlying inflation to come down further.”
- CIBC: “The apparent momentum towards the end of 2023 suggests that Q1 GDP may be a little stronger than we had previously anticipated. However, with signposts of domestic demand looking weaker than the headline GDP data, we still suspect that any growth in activity during the first half of this year will be marginal. That will result in a further upward drift in the unemployment rate and bring a first interest rate cut from the BoC in June.”
- Desjardins: “The resilience suggests that the BoC might be able to hold rates steady until closer to the middle of the year. However, we still believe the risks are tilted to the downside for the economy given upcoming mortgage renewals and the slowing of population growth.”
- RBC: “The reacceleration of growth towards the end of 2023 should be taken with a grain of salt – early GDP estimates are revision-prone and a lot of the strength in November was due to one-off factors such as recoveries from earlier factory shutdowns and strike activities that are unlikely to be repeated in the following months. Taking the advance December estimate at face value, growth in Q4 is tracking an annualized increase of 1.2% which is above our tracking for a small decline. […] Overall we continue to expect pressures from elevated interest rates to curb consumer demand, stalling growth in both output and inflation over the first half of 2024 before the BoC is expected to cut rates in June.”
- TD: “The Canadian economy looks to be finishing the year on a stronger note than most expected. Markets are still focused on the timing of rate cuts, but a heating up of the Canadian economy may push expectations for a first cut further down the line. […] While the BoC remains in a holding pattern as it awaits confirmation that inflation will decisively settle at their 2% inflation target, strong data prints like today's GDP release will be keeping the Bank on their toes.“
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Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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