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Mixed Trade Data See Goods & Service Deficit At 1% GDP In Q1

CANADA DATA
  • Released earlier today, the merchandise trade balance registered a larger than expected surplus in March of C$0.9B (cons C$ 0.2B). It did however follow a downward revised deficit of -C$0.5B (initial +C$0.4B) on lower than first thought energy revenues.
  • It leaves a three-month trade surplus hovering at 0.4% GDP, having been close to 0.5% since Sept.
  • The service deficit meanwhile continued to widen to -1.4% GDP, back where it was last fall as it looks to continue a return towards more ‘normal’ levels having been running a deficit between 1.5-2% GDP in years leading up to the pandemic.
  • The combination saw the goods & services deficit widen to -1% GDP from -0.5% GDP at the turn of the year, but whilst this has deteriorated notably from the 1% GDP surplus seen last year, it’s still on the small side as the goods balance is still running a rare surplus by historical standards.

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