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Mixed Trade, With Lagarde And US Housing Data Eyed

BONDS

Global core FI is trading mixed, with futures slightly off overnight highs. Yields are mostly lower with curves mixed (US bull steepening, UK bull flattening, Germany twist flattening) ahead of several central bank speakers and US housing data.

  • German instruments are underperforming ahead of ECB Pres Lagarde's Davos appearance at 0530ET/1030GMT.
  • She's anticipated to continue the pushback against speculation the ECB could step down the size of hikes to 25bp as soon as the March meeting. DNB's Knot added to the hawkish chorus earlier in the session, boosting ECB hike pricing.
  • Norges Bank held rates as widely expected; little broader market reaction.
  • US data in focus today includes jobless claims, Philly Fed, and more interestingly housing starts/building permits, which will be eyed in the context of Wednesday's unexpected NAHB survey bounce.
  • We hear from Fed's Brainard, Collins and Williams, and ECB's Knot (again) and Schnabel. We also get the accounts of the December ECB meeting.
  • $17B 10Y TIPS auction is today's US gov't supply.

Latest levels:

  • Mar 10-Yr futures (TY) up 2/32 at 115-31 (L: 115-26.5 / H: 116-08)
  • Mar Bund futures (RX) down 29 ticks at 140.01 (L: 139.82 / H: 140.73)
  • Mar Gilt futures (G) up 24 ticks at 105.22 (L: 104.9 / H: 105.68)
  • Italy / German 10-Yr spread 0.6bps wider at 174.4bps
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