MNI 5 THINGS: Japan Q3 GDP Revised Lower on Weaker Capex

--Japan Q3 GDP Rev -0.6% Q/Q; Prelim -0.3%; MNI Median -0.6% 

--Japan Q3 Annualized GDP Rev -2.5% Vs -1.2%; MNI Median -2.5% 

--Japan Q3 Capex Rev -2.8% Q/Q; Prelim -0.2%; Median -2.2% 

--Japan Q3 Capex Contribution Revised -0.4 Point Vs -0.0 Point 

--Japan Q3 Consumption Revised -0.2% Q/Q Vs. -0.1% 

--Japan Q3 Consumption Contribution Unrevised -0.1 Point 

--Japan Q3 Net Export Contribution Unrevised -0.1 Pct Point 

--Japan Q3 Private Inventories Revised 0.0 Pct Point Vs. -0.0 

--Japan Q3 Public Investment Contribution -0.1 Pt Vs -0.1 Pt

     TOKYO (MNI) - Japan's economy contracted at a faster pace than initially

estimated in the July-September quarter, as business investment turned out to be

weaker than initially seen, according to revised (second preliminary) data

released by the Cabinet Office Monday.

     The economy fell 0.6% on quarter, or an annualized -2.5%, weighed by weaker

capital investment, for the first contraction in two quarters following 0.7%

q/q, or an annualized 2.8%, gain in Q2.

     -- Real Q3 GDP was revised down to -0.6% on quarter, or an annualized

-2.5%, from the preliminary estimate of -0.3% on quarter, or an annualized

-1.2%, as largely expected. The median forecast by economists was -0.6% on

quarter, or an annualized -2.5%.

     -- The downward revision came from weaker domestic demand, which was

revised down to a -0.5 percentage point contribution from the preliminary -0.2

percentage point.

     -- Capital investment was revised down from the initial reading of -0.2% to

-2.8% on quarter (the MNI median forecast was -2.2%), and was much lower than

+2.8% in the second quarter. Its contribution to the Q3 GDP fell to -0.4

percentage point from a preliminary -0.0 percentage point.

     -- Private consumption, which accounts for about 60% of GDP, was revised

down to -0.2% on quarter in Q3 from -0.1% in. It pushed down the Q3 GDP by an

unrevised 0.1 percentage point.

     -- The contribution of net exports -- exports minus imports -- was

unrevised at -0.1 percentage point.

     -- The contribution of private-sector inventories to the total domestic

output was revised to 0.0 percentage point from -0.1 percentage points while the

contribution of public investment was unrevised at +0.0 percentage point.

     -- Despite the weaker than expected outcome in the third quarter, Japan's

economy is seen returning to a moderate recovery path due to the rebound in

exports and industrial production.

     -- The average economist forecast for Q4 GDP growth is annualized at

between 1.4% and 1.7%, according to the latest monthly ESP Survey of 38

economists by the Japan Center for Economic Research conducted from Oct. 29 to

Nov. 5.

--MNI Tokyo Bureau; tel: +81 90-2175-0040; email: hiroshi.inoue@marketnews.com

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com

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