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AUSTRALIA DATA

Australia Jan Exports +6.0%; Surplus +AUD10.14 Bn

1 September 2017
By Kyle Shortland
     
Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc
AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7863 Support Confirms Significance
*RES 4: $0.8065 - 2017 High July 27
*RES 3: $0.8044 - High Aug 1
*RES 2: $0.7996 - High Aug 30
*RES 1: $0.7977 - Hourly support Aug 30a now resistance
*PRICE: $0.7947 @ 2100GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7917 - Hourly support Aug 31 
*SUP 2: $0.7863 - Low Aug 24 
*SUP 3: $0.7809 - 55-DMA 
*SUP 4: $0.7807 - Low Aug 15
*COMMENTARY: The $0.7863 support confirmed significance Thursday with the pair
having looked heavy before bouncing aggressively for a likely bullish close on
the day that sees bulls focused on $0.7996 today. Bulls need a close above this
level to reconfirm focus on $0.8044-65 and above $0.8065 to reconfirm the
bullish bias and target 2015 highs ($0.8165). Bears now need a close below
$0.7917 to return pressure to $0.7863.
KIWI TECHS: Bounces From 200-DMA
*RES 4: $0.7263 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 
*RES 3: $0.7230 - Hourly resistance Aug 30a 
*RES 2: $0.7211 - Hourly resistance Aug 30 
*RES 1: $0.7189 - Low Aug 31 now resistance
*PRICE: $0.7177 @ 2100GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7162 - Hourly support Aug 31 
*SUP 2: $0.7132 - Low Aug 31 
*SUP 3: $0.7129 - 200-DMA
*SUP 4: $0.7035 - Low May 30
*COMMENTARY: Topside failures ahead of 21 ($.7288) & 55 ($0.7318) DMAs resulted
in a sell-off this week that saw pressure back on 100 ($0.7180) & 200-DMAs.
Bulls take comfort in the 200-DMA supporting but now need a close above $0.7211
to gain breathing room and shift focus back to the key $0.7288-0.7337 resistance
region. Above $0.7337 remains needed to end bearish hopes and shift overall
focus back to 2017 highs.
AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Bulls Focused On NZ$1.1195-1.1272
*RES 4: NZ$1.1272 - Monthly High Apr 25
*RES 3: NZ$1.1227 - Daily Bull channel top
*RES 2: NZ$1.1195 - Low Apr 26 now resistance
*RES 1: NZ$1.1080 - High Aug 31
*PRICE: NZ$1.1071 @ 2100GMT
*SUP 1: NZ$1.1049 - Hourly support Aug 31
*SUP 2: NZ$1.1007 - Hourly support Aug 31a
*SUP 3: NZ$1.0982 - Hourly resistance Aug 31 now support
*SUP 4: NZ$1.0955 - Hourly support Aug 30
*COMMENTARY: Bulls took comfort in support emerging on dips back towards the
21-DMA and channel base which provided the catalyst for a break higher that
reconfirmed the bullish bias. Thursday's gains and bullish close see immediate
focus now on NZ$1.1195-1.1272 where the bull channel to is located. Initial
support is noted at NZ$1.1049 but bears need a close below NZ$1.1007 to ease
bullish pressure and return initial focus to NZ$1.0955.
AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Above Y88.02 To Shift Focus Higher
*RES 4: Y88.02 - High Aug 7 
*RES 3: Y87.86 - Bollinger band top 
*RES 2: Y87.81 - High Aug 30 
*RES 1: Y87.58 - Hourly resistance Aug 30a
*PRICE: Y87.38 @ 2100GMT
*SUP 1: Y86.92 - Low Aug 30
*SUP 2: Y86.81 - 21-DMA, 55-DMA
*SUP 3: Y86.67 - Hourly support Aug 29a
*SUP 4: Y86.12 - Hourly support Aug 29b
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from Tuesday's low saw the pair break above Y87.57 but
follow through has been lacking with the pair capped ahead of the key Y88.02
resistance. Bulls need a close above Y88.02 to end bearish hopes and shift focus
to Y88.81-89.42 where 2017 highs are noted. Support layers remain with bears now
looking for a close below Y86.67 to return focus to Y85.14-68 where 100 &
200-DMAs are noted.
EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Topside Follow Through Lacking 
*RES 4: A$1.5175 - High Aug 29
*RES 3: A$1.5093 - High Aug 30
*RES 2: A$1.5038 - Hourly support Aug 31 now resistance
*RES 1: A$1.5010 - Hourly resistance Aug 31
*PRICE: A$1.4985 @ 2100GMT
*SUP 1: A$1.4970 - Low Aug 31 
*SUP 2: A$1.4936 - 21-DMA 
*SUP 3: A$1.4900 - Hourly support Aug 23 
*SUP 4: A$1.4880 - Hourly support Aug 23a
*COMMENTARY: Topside follow through has been lacking with the pair looking a
little heavy. Layers of resistance are accumulating with bulls now needing a
close above A$1.5093 to regain the upper hand and return focus to
A$1.5175-1.5226. The Bollinger top (A$1.5080) remains the key concern for bulls
and continues to limit follow through. Bears now look for a close below A$1.4732
to shift focus back to A$1.4422-71 where the 200-DMA is noted.
US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Rejected Above 21-DMA
*RES 4: 93.628 - High Aug 23 
*RES 3: 93.451 - Hourly resistance Aug 23 
*RES 2: 93.347 - High Aug 31 
*RES 1: 92.936 - Hourly resistance Aug 31
*PRICE: 92.633 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: 92.579 - Alternating hourly support/resistance
*SUP 2: 92.251 - Low Aug 30
*SUP 3: 91.621 - 2017 Low Aug 29
*SUP 4: 91.514 - Low Jan 15 2015
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from recent 2017 and 2+ year lows looks to be in
trouble with the rejection above the 21-DMA (93.196) leaving the index looking
heavy and immediate pressure back on 92.579. Bears look for a close below this
level to reconfirm initial focus on 91.514-621 and below 91.514 to target
89.776-90.325. Bulls now need a close above 93.347 to ease bearish pressure and
shift focus to 93.451-94.145.
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Supported Ahead Of 21-DMA
*RES 4: $1.2009 Hourly support Aug30a now resistance 
*RES 3: $1.1984 High Aug 30 
*RES 2: $1.1939 Hourly support Aug 30 now resistance 
*RES 1: $1.1908 High Aug 31
*PRICE: $1.1904 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1869 Hourly support Aug 31 
*SUP 2: $1.1823 Low Aug 31 
*SUP 3: $1.1814 21-DMA 
*SUP 4: $1.1730 Low Aug 21
*COMMENTARY: The correction lower from Tuesday's high left the pair looking
heavy Thursday and resulted in a dip below the $1.1828 support before finding
support ahead of the 21-DMA. The $1.1939 resistance is now key with bulls
needing a close above to gain breathing room and above $1.1984 to target the
bull channel top ($1.2153). Bears now look for a close below the 21-DMA to ease
bullish pressure and shift focus to $1.1648-1.1709.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Pressure Back on 21-DMA
*RES 4: Y111.05 High Aug 4 
*RES 3: Y110.85 Bollinger band top 
*RES 2: Y110.67 High Aug 31 
*RES 1: Y110.40 Hourly support Aug 31 now resistance
*PRICE: Y109.98 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: Y109.76 21-DMA 
*SUP 2: Y109.41 Hourly resistance Aug 28 now support 
*SUP 3: Y108.96 Hourly resistance Aug 29 now support 
*SUP 4: Y108.96 Hourly resistance Aug 29 now support
*COMMENTARY: A volatile week so far sees pressure back on the 21-DMA and the
pair looking a little heavy having remained capped on approach to Y111.05. Bears
now need a close below the 21-DMA to reconfirm focus on the key 107.47-108.10
region. While the 21-DMA supports bulls hold a slight advantage but still need a
close above Y111.33 to end bearish hopes and target Y112.18-49 where the 200-DMA
is situated. Daily studies are back at neutral levels.
SPOT GOLD TECHS: Pressure Back On $1326.1-1352.6
*RES 4: $1343.6 - High Sept 22 
*RES 3: $1337.4 - Monthly High Nov 9 
*RES 2: $1326.1 - 2017 high Aug 29 
*RES 1: $1337.4 - Monthly High Nov 9
*PRICE: $1320.7 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: $1313.7 - High Aug 30 now support 
*SUP 2: $1304.9 - Hourly support Aug 31 
*SUP 3: $1298.4 - Low Aug 31 
*SUP 4: $1295.5 - Hourly support Aug 28a
*COMMENTARY: The $1295.5 support confirmed significance with gold bouncing
aggressively form a dip back towards this level Thursday. The recovery from
Thursday lows sees immediate pressure back on the $1326.1-1352.6 region where
2017 & monthly highs and the daily bull channel top are situated. The Bollinger
top ($1322.0) is the key concern for bulls. Bears now need a close below $1213.7
to ease bullish pressure.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]