MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

14 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Rejected Ahead Of Falling TL Off 2018 High

*RES 4: $0.7989 - High Feb 16

*RES 3: $0.7935 - High Feb 19

*RES 2: $0.7919 - Falling daily TL off 2018 high

*RES 1: $0.7897 - High Mar 13

*PRICE: $0.7852 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7840 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $0.7771 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: $0.7753 - Hourly support Mar 5 

*SUP 4: $0.7710 - 2018 Low Mar 1

*COMMENTARY: The break of the 55-DMA ($0.7887) has lacked follow through with

the pair rejected ahead of the falling daily TL off 2018 highs. Bulls now look

for a close above $0.7935 to confirm a break of the TL and above $0.7989 to

shift overall focus to $0.8135-62 where 2015 & 2018 highs are situated. Bears

continue to look for a close below the 21-DMA to gain breathing room and below

the 100-DMA to return pressure to $0.7694-0.7710.

     KIWI TECHS: $0.7243-85 Support Region Now Key

*RES 4: $0.7415 - Hourly support Feb 16 now resistance 

*RES 3: $0.7407 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: $0.7385 - High Feb 21 

*RES 1: $0.7354 - High Mar 13

*PRICE: $0.7323 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7307 - Hourly support Mar 13

*SUP 2: $0.7285 - Hourly support Mar 12

*SUP 3: $0.7243 - Low Mar 8

*SUP 4: $0.7181 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in an aggressive break of the 21-DMA ($0.7299)

although topside follow through is lacking. In saying that, the recent run of

higher daily lows adds to bullish confidence and sees focus on $0.7436 2018

highs. Initial support is noted at $0.7307 but bears need a close below $0.7285

to ease renewed bullish pressure and below $0.7243 to shift initial focus back

to the 200-DMA. Bears need a close below the 200-DMA to target Dec lows.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Bollinger Top Capping, Bears Regain Control

*RES 4: NZ$1.0859 - 200-DMA

*RES 3: NZ$1.0833 - 55-WMA

*RES 2: NZ$1.0815 - Bollinger band top

*RES 1: NZ$1.0760 - Hourly resistance Mar 13

*PRICE: NZ$1.0719 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0700 - Low Mar 9

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0650 - 2018 Low Feb 22

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0588 - Low July 31

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0491 - Low July 13

*COMMENTARY: Bears regained control with the rally capped ahead of the Bollinger

top and the likely close below the 21-DMA (NZ$1.0733) leaving the pair looking

offered. Bears need a close below NZ$1.0700 to return focus to NZ$1.0588-1.0650

where 2018 lows and the bear channel base are situated. Bulls now look for a

close above NZ$1.0760 to gain breathing room. Bulls now need a close above

NZ$1.0894 to hint at a move to NZ$1.1006-73 where 2018 highs are noted.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y83.32

*RES 4: Y84.89 - High Feb 14 

*RES 3: Y84.54 - High Mar 13 

*RES 2: Y84.09 - Hourly resistance Mar 13 

*RES 1: Y83.81 - Hourly support Mar 13 now resistance

*PRICE: Y83.71 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y83.32 - High Mar 6

*SUP 2: Y82.50 - Low Mar 8

*SUP 3: Y82.03 - Low Mar 7

*SUP 4: Y81.47 - 2017 Low May 19, 2018 Low Mar 5

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2018 lows and the double daily bottom looks to be

in trouble with a lack of follow through leaving the pair looking heavy today.

Bears continue to look for a close below Y83.32 to confirm an easing of bullish

pressure and below Y82.50 to confirm focus on 2018 lows. Bulls now need a close

above Y84.09 to gain breathing room and above Y84.89 to add support to the case

for a test of DMAs Y86.11-61.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above A$1.5824

*RES 4: A$1.5941 - High Mar 8

*RES 3: A$1.5884 - Bollinger band top

*RES 2: A$1.5853 - Hourly resistance Mar 8

*RES 1: A$1.5824 - High Mar 9

*PRICE: A$1.5767 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5747 - Hourly resistance Mar 13 now support 

*SUP 2: A$1.5691 - High Mar 12 now support 

*SUP 3: A$1.5619 - Low Mar 12 

*SUP 4: A$1.5598 - Low Feb 20

*COMMENTARY: The correction from 2018 highs is in trouble with a rally and close

above the 21-DMA (A$1.5742) buying bulls breathing room and seeing pressure on

A$1.5824. Bulls need a close above to confirm a return in initial focus to

A$1.5941-1.6004 where 2018 highs and the bull channel top are located. Bears

need a close below A$1.5691 to retain focus on layers of support A$1.5484-1.5598

where 55 & 100-DMAs and the bull channel base off 2018 lows are situated.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Below 89.407 To Target 2018 Lows

*RES 4: 91.011 - Low Sept 8 now resistance 

*RES 3: 90.420 - Hourly resistance Mar 1 

*RES 2: 90.383 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: 90.187 - High Mar 12

*PRICE: 89.748 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 89.591 - Low Mar 13

*SUP 2: 89.407 - Low Mar 7

*SUP 3: 88.960 - Low Feb 19

*SUP 4: 88.650 - Hourly support Feb 16

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 55-DMA remains a concern for bulls who now

need a close above 90.420 to confirm a break and shift initial focus to 91.011.

A close above 91.011 is needed to target 91.751-944 where the 100-DMA is noted.

The 89.407 remains key with bears needing a close below to confirm traction

below the 21-DMA, ending bullish hopes and shifting focus back to 88.253 2018

lows.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1.2340

*RES 4: $1.2639 Weekly Bear channel top

*RES 3: $1.2555 2018 High Feb 16

*RES 2: $1.2485 Bollinger band top

*RES 1: $1.2446 High Mar 8

*PRICE: $1.2384 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2340 Hourly support Mar 13 

*SUP 2: $1.2313 Low Mar 13 

*SUP 3: $1.2271 Low Mar 9 

*SUP 4: $1.2256 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The pair stalled on approach to the weekly bear channel top

($1.2639) off 2008 highs in past weeks. Bulls take comfort in support emerging

on dips back towards the 55-DMA with the likely close above $1.2364 shifting

initial focus to $1.2446 and bulls needing a close above to reconfirm focus on

$1.2555-1.2639 where 2018 highs and the LT bear channel top are situated. Bears

need a close below $1.2340 to see focus back on the 55-DMA.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Topside Follow Through Lacking

*RES 4: Y108.42 Low Feb 12 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y107.75 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: Y107.29 High Mar 13

*PRICE: Y106.51 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y106.13 Low Mar 9 

*SUP 2: Y105.79 Hourly support Mar 7 

*SUP 3: Y105.22 2018 Low Mar 2 

*SUP 4: Y101.15 Monthly Low Nov 9 2016

*COMMENTARY: Follow through was lacking on the break of the bear channel top off

2018 highs and Y107.19 leaving the pair looking a little offered. Bears now need

a close below Y106.13 to reconfirm initial focus on Y105.22 and overall focus on

Y98.95-101.15. Bollinger bands continue to narrow which hints at a break out in

the near future. Bulls now need a close above Y107.29 to shift initial focus to

Y108.03-42 with above this region to hint at a move back to Y109.79-110.47.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y131.42 Support Now Key

*RES 4: Y133.80 55-DMA

*RES 3: Y133.39 100-DMA

*RES 2: Y133.36 Bollinger band top

*RES 1: Y133.05 High Feb 21

*PRICE: Y131.94 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.54 Hourly support Mar 13 

*SUP 2: Y131.42 Hourly resistance Mar 13a now support 

*SUP 3: Y130.95 Low Mar 12 

*SUP 4: Y130.49 Low Mar 8

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the likely close above 21 (Y131.63) & 200

(Y131.58) DMAs that sees focus shift to the Y133.05-1343.16 region where 55 &

100-DMAs are situated. Daily studies have room to move before O/B becomes an

issue. Support layers have followed the pair higher adding to bullish

confidence. Bears now look for a close below Y131.42 to ease bullish pressure

and below Y130.49 to shift initial focus back to tests of 2018 lows (Y129.33).

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: 21-DMA Capping, Bounces Continue

*RES 4: $1351.3 - High Feb 19 

*RES 3: $1344.7 - Low Feb 16 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1340.7 - High Feb 26 

*RES 1: $1329.6 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $1325.6 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1312.9 - Hourly resistance Mar 1 now support 

*SUP 2: $1302.9 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2 

*SUP 4: $1293.5 - Low Dec 29

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in bounces from $1312.9 that see pressure back

on the 21-DMA. Bulls look for a close above the 21-DMA to gain breathing room

whereas a close above $1351.3 remains needed to initially focus on

$1367.3-1374.9 where 2016 highs are noted. Bears need a close below $1312.9 to

confirm a return in focus to $1289.1-1302.9 where 100 & 200-DMAs are situated.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (K18) $59.18 Support Key This Week 

*RES 4: $63.05 - High Mar 6 

*RES 3: $62.22 - High Mar 12 

*RES 2: $61.99 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: $60.91 - Hourly resistance Mar 13

*PRICE: $60.66 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $60.29 - Low Mar 13 

*SUP 2: $59.91 - Low Mar 8 

*SUP 3: $59.33 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $59.18 - High Feb 13 now support

*COMMENTARY: Despite looking heavy last week the $59.18-91 support region where

the 100-DMA and bull channel base ($59.47) are located confirmed significance

with a rally that provided bulls breathing room and hints at a test of

$63.05-64.07 this week. Overall a close above $64.07 remains needed to return

focus to $66.02-68.21. Bears need a close below $59.18 to hint at a move back to

$53.30-55.40 with below $57.60 to confirm.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]