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​MNI BCB Review – Sep 2023: Easing Pace Confirmed, Hawkish Tone Conveyed

MNI BCB Preview - Sep 2023

MNI BCB Preview - Sep 2023

Executive Summary

  • At the September 20 meeting, the Copom decided to cut the Selic rate by 50bps to 12.75%. The decision was adopted by all members of the committee.
  • Inflation forecasts were revised marginally higher and in a slightly hawkish development, the statement included a reference to the importance of “firmly pursuing” the already established fiscal targets. Analysts have pointed out this has links to reports of discussions about revising the primary fiscal target and its potential impact on monetary policy.
  • The statement highlighted that if the scenario evolves as expected, all committee members anticipate further rate cuts of the same magnitude in the next meetings.
  • This keeps the consensus expectation for a year-end Selic rate of 11.75%, however, some analysts still foresee the pace of easing being accelerated towards the end of 2023.

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MNI BCB Review - September 2023.pdf

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