MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - S/T Bund Gains Deemed Corrective

Price Signal Summary – S/T Bund Gains Deemed Corrective

• The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged and remains bullish. The pullback from Monday’s 5066.50 high is considered corrective and support to watch lies at 4947.87, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average would suggest potential for a deeper retracement. Eurostoxx 50 futures remain in an uptrend and the move lower Tuesday is considered corrective. The contract traded higher Monday delivering another fresh cycle high, confirming an extension of the current uptrend.
• The move lower in GBPUSD from Tuesday’s high, signals the end of the recent corrective bounce. A continuation lower would open 1.2519, the Feb 5 low where a break would confirm a resumption of the current bear cycle. The USDJPY trend outlook remains bullish and short-term weakness is considered corrective. Recent fresh cycle highs confirm, once again, a resumption of the uptrend and note that Tuesday’s gains resulted in a break of 149.75, the Nov 22 high. The USDCAD trend structure remains bullish. The pair traded higher Tuesday and the rally resulted in a break of resistance at 1.3544, the Feb 5 / 6 high and bull trigger. This confirms a resumption of the bull cycle that started Dec 27 and signals scope for a climb towards 1.3623.
• Gold has traded lower this week and, in the process, the move has resulted in a break of $2001.9, the Jan 17 low and a key short-term support. The breach highlights a resumption of the bear leg that started Dec 28. A continuation lower would open $1973.2. Recent gains in WTI futures, since Feb 5, appears to be a correction - for now. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $79.29, the Jan 29 high. Clearance of this level would be a bullish development.
• Bund futures remain in a bear mode condition and short-term gains are considered corrective. The contract has recently breached key short-term support at 133.55, the Jan 25 low, to confirm a resumption of the bear cycle that started Dec 27. A bear threat in Gilt futures remains present and Tuesday’s move lower confirmed a resumption of the current bear cycle. Key support at 97.57, the Jan 25 low, has been cleared. The break confirms a resumption of the downtrend and opens 96.67, the Dec 5 low.

EURUSD TECHS: Bear Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 1.1046 High Jan 2
• RES 3: 1.0998 High Jan 5
• RES 2: 1.0932 High Jan 24 and a reversal trigger
• RES 1: 1.0808/98 20-day EMA / High Feb 02
• PRICE: 1.0731 @ 05:45 GMT Feb 15
• SUP 1: 1.0701 Low Feb 13
• SUP 2: 1.0656 Low Nov 10
• SUP 3: 1.0611 76.4% retracement of the Oct - Dec bull leg
• SUP 4: 1.0568 Low Nov 2

EURUSD conditions remain bearish and Tuesday’s extension lower reinforces the current downtrend. The pair traded to a fresh trend low and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that support at 1.0724, the Dec 8 low, and 1.0712, 61.8% of the Oct - Dec bull leg, have been breached this week. This opens 1.0656 next, the Nov 10 low. Initial resistance is 1.0808, the 20-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 1.2881 76.4% retracement of the Jul 14 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.2827 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.2775 High Jan 24
• RES 1: 1.2684 High Feb 13
• PRICE: 1.2565 @ 05:56 GMT Feb 15
• SUP 1: 1.2519 Low Feb 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.2500 Low Dec 13
• SUP 3: 1.2432 50.0% retracement of the Oct 4 - Dec 28 bull phase
• SUP 4: 1.2374 Low Nov 17

The move lower in GBPUSD from Tuesday’s high, signals the end of the recent corrective bounce. A continuation lower would open 1.2519, the Feb 5 low where a break would confirm a resumption of the current bear cycle. Recently, the pair breached 1.2597, the Jan 17 low, to confirm a range breakout and this signals scope for a move towards 1.2500, the Dec 13 low. Initial resistance is at 1.2684, the Feb 13 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 0.8676 High Jan 3
• RES 3: 0.8620 High Jan 20
• RES 2: 0.8572/8583 High Feb 5 and 6 / 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8549 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8537 @ 06:20 GMT Feb 15
• SUP 1: 0.8493 Low Aug 23 2023 and a key medium-term support
• SUP 2: 0.8454 61.8% of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 ‘23 bull phase
• SUP 3: 0.8388 Low Aug 17 2023
• SUP 4: 0.8340 Low Aug 2 2022

A strong recovery in EURGBP on Wednesday appears - for now - to be a correction. A bearish theme remains intact and the cross has traded to fresh cycle lows this week, breaching support at 0.8513, the Jan 29 low. The break confirms a resumption of the bear cycle with the next objective at 0.8493, the Aug 23 ‘23 low and a key support. Initial resistance to watch is at 0.8549, the 20-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 152.43 0.764 proj of the Dec 28 - Jan 19 - Feb 1 price swing
• RES 3: 151.91/95 High Nov 13 / High Oct 1 ‘22 and major resistance
• RES 2: 151.43 High Nov 16
• RES 1: 150.89 High Feb 13
• PRICE: 150.11 @ 06:43 GMT Feb 15
• SUP 1: 148.27/147.15 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 145.90 Low Feb 1 and key support
• SUP 3: 145.59 Low Jan 16
• SUP 4: 144.36 Low Jan 12

The USDJPY trend outlook remains bullish and short-term weakness is considered corrective. Recent fresh cycle highs confirm, once again, a resumption of the uptrend and note that Tuesday’s gains resulted in a break of 149.75, the Nov 22 high. This signals scope for a climb towards 151.91/95, the Nov 13 ‘23 high and the Oct 1 ‘22 high and a major resistance. Initial firm support lies at 148.27, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Watching Resistance

• RES 4: 163.72 High Nov 27
• RES 3: 162.25 High Nov 29
• RES 2: 161.86 High Jan 19 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 161.63 High Feb 13
• PRICE: 161.04 @ 06:57 GMT Feb 15
• SUP 1: 160.24 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 158.92/08 Low Feb 7 / 1 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 157.21 Low Jan 9
• SUP 4: 156.08 Low Jan 4

EURJPY is trading lower but continues to hold on to the bulk of its most recent gains. Key short-term support is unchanged at 158.08, Feb 1 low. A clear break of this level would resume recent bearish pressure and open 157.21, the Jan 9 low. For bulls, key resistance to watch is 161.86, the Jan 19 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend that started on Dec 7 and open 162.25, the Nov 29 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Moving Average Studies Highlight A Downtrend

• RES 4: 0.6900 High Jun 16 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.6871 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.6729/71 High Jan 12 / 3
• RES 1: 0.6548/6625 20-day EMA / High Jan 30 and key resistance
• PRICE: 0.6496 @ 07:26 GMT Feb 15
• SUP 1: 0.6443 Low Feb 13
• SUP 2: 0.6412 76.4% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec upleg
• SUP 3: 0.6360 Low Nov 14
• SUP 4: 0.6339 Low Nov 10

A bearish trend condition in AUDUSD remains intact and Tuesday’s break lower reinforces this theme. The move down confirms a resumption of the bear trend, with sights on 0.6412, a Fibonacci retracement. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a clear downtrend. Key resistance to watch is 0.6625, the Jan 30 high. Initial resistance is at 0.6548, the 20-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 1.3661 High Nov 27
• RES 3: 1.3623 61.8% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.3608 High Dec 13
• RES 1: 1.3586 High Feb 13
• PRICE: 1.3539 @ 07:29 GMT Feb 15
• SUP 1: 1.3413/3359 Low Feb 09 / Jan 31 and key S/T support
• SUP 2: 1.3343 Low Jan 12
• SUP 3: 1.3288 Low Jan 5
• SUP 4: 1.3229 Low Feb 1

The USDCAD trend structure remains bullish. The pair traded higher Tuesday and the rally resulted in a break of resistance at 1.3544, the Feb 5 / 6 high and bull trigger. This confirms a resumption of the bull cycle that started Dec 27 and signals scope for a climb towards 1.3623, 61.8% of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg. On the downside, key support to watch lies at 1.3359, the Jan 31 low. Initial firm support has been defined at 1.3413, the Feb 9 low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H4) Remains Soft

• RES 4: 137.96 High Jan 4
• RES 3: 137.59 76.4% retracement of the Dec 27 - Jan 25 bear leg
• RES 2: 136.82 61.8% retracement of the Dec 27 - Jan 25 bear leg
• RES 1: 134.27/136.29 20-day EMA / High Feb 1 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 134.00 @ 05:18 GMT Feb 15
• SUP 1: 132.77 Low Feb 14
• SUP 2: 132.29 Low Nov 29
• SUP 3: 131.49 61.8% retracement of the Oct 4 - Dec 27 bull phase
• SUP 4: 130.47 Low Nov 24

Bund futures remain in a bear mode condition and short-term gains are considered corrective. The contract has recently breached key short-term support at 133.55, the Jan 25 low, to confirm a resumption of the bear cycle that started Dec 27. The focus is on 132.29 next, the Nov 29 low. For bulls, clearance of 136.29, the Feb 1 high, is required to signal a reversal. Initial resistance is at 134.27, the 20-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (H4) Bearish Trend Structure

• RES 4: 119.228 76.4% retracement of the Dec 27 - Jan 25 bear leg
• RES 3: 119.000 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 118.856 61.8% retracement of the Dec 27 - Jan 25 bear leg
• RES 1: 117.538/118.660 20-day EMA / High Feb 1
• PRICE: 117.180 @ 05:37 GMT Feb 15
• SUP 1: 116.620 Low Feb 13 / 14
• SUP 2: 116.390 Low Nov 28
• SUP 3: 116.110 1.00 proj of the Dec 27 - Jan 25 - Feb 1 price swing
• SUP 4: 115.820 Low Nov 24

A bearish cycle in Bobl futures remains intact and the latest bounce appears to be a correction. Recent weakness resulted in a breach of key support and the bear trigger at 117.280, the Jan 25 low. The clear break confirms a resumption of the bear cycle that started Dec 27 and sights are on 116.390, the Nov 28 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 118.660, the Feb 1 high. A break would be a bullish development.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H4) Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 106.070 High Feb 2
• RES 3: 105.803 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 105.760 Low Jan 25 and a recent breakout level
• RES 1: 105.665 High Feb 9
• PRICE: 105.565 @ 05:48 GMT Feb 15
• SUP 1: 105.415 Low Feb 13
• SUP 2: 105.315 1.764 projection of the Jan 12 - 25 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 105.260 Low Nov 24 and a key support
• SUP 4: 105.195 2.00 projection of the Jan 12 - 25 - 31 price swing

A downtrend in Schatz futures remains intact and Tuesday’s move lower confirms once again, a resumption of the current bear cycle. This maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and note too that moving average studies are in a bear mode position. Sights are on 105.260, the Nov 24 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 105.760, the Jan 25 low. Short-term gains are considered corrective.

GILT TECHS: (H4) Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 100.81 High Jan 5
• RES 3: 100.62 High Feb 1 and key resistance
• RES 2: 100.20 High Feb 2
• RES 1: 98.54 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 97.80 @ Close Feb 14
• SUP 1: 96.81 Low Feb 13
• SUP 2: 96.67 Low Dec 5
• SUP 3: 96.10 Low Nov 30
• SUP 4: 95.56 Low Nov 27

A bear threat in Gilt futures remains present and Tuesday’s move lower confirmed a resumption of the current bear cycle. Key support at 97.57, the Jan 25 low, has been cleared. The break confirms a resumption of the downtrend and opens 96.67, the Dec 5 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 98.54, the 20-day EMA. Key resistance and the reversal trigger is at 100.62, the Feb 1 high.

BTP TECHS: (H4) Bearish Short-Term Structure

• RES 4: 121.43 High 27 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 120.40 High Dec 29
• RES 2: 119.77 High Jan 4
• RES 1: 119.27 High Jan 30
• PRICE: 117.70 @ Close Feb 14
• SUP 1: 116.44 Low Dec 13
• SUP 2: 115.70 Low Dec 8
• SUP 3: 114.10 50.0% retracement of the Oct 19 - Dec 27 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 113.31 Low Nov 28

The trend condition in BTP futures remains bearish and recent weakness reinforces current conditions. Attention is on key support at 116.98, the Jan 25 low. It has been pierced, a clear break would confirm a resumption of the bearish cycle and open 115.70, the Dec 8 low. Firm resistance has been defined at 119.27, the Jan 30 high. A break would be a bullish development and signal scope for a stronger recovery.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H4) Trend Signals Remain Bullish

• RES 4: 4844.00 2.00 projection of the Nov 8 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 4800.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4788.10 1.764 projection of the Nov 8 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 4766.00 High Feb 12
• PRICE: 4746.00 @ 06:18 GMT Feb 15
• SUP 1: 4647.70 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4557.90 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4402.00 Low Jan 17 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 4370.00 Low Nov 28

Eurostoxx 50 futures remain in an uptrend and the move lower Tuesday is considered corrective. The contract traded higher Monday delivering another fresh cycle high, confirming an extension of the current uptrend. This reinforces bullish conditions and the importance of the recent break of resistance at 4634.00, the Dec 14 high. Sights are on 4788.10, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support lies at 4663.90, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (H4) Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 5170.86 2.236 proj of Nov 10 - Dec 1 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: 5110.50 2.00 proj of Nov 10 - Dec 1 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: 5100.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 5066.50 High Feb 12 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 5023.75 @ 07:10 GMT Feb 15
• SUP 1: 4947.87 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4866.000/4836.90 Low Jan 31 / 50-day EMA values
• SUP 3: 4702.00 Low Jan 5
• SUP 4: 4594.00 Low Nov 30

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged and remains bullish. The pullback from Monday’s 5066.50 high is considered corrective and support to watch lies at 4947.87, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average would suggest potential for a deeper retracement, possibly towards the 4866.00 key support, the Jan 31 low. For bulls, the trigger for a resumption of gains is 5066.50, the Feb 12 high.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (J4) Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: $87.12 - High Oct 27
• RES 3: $86.03 - 76.4% retracement of the Sep 15 - Dec 13 bear cycle
• RES 2: $84.17 - High Jan 29 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: $83.60 - High Feb 14
• PRICE: $81.36 @ 06:58 GMT Feb 15
• SUP 1: $79.76/76.62 - 50-day EMA / Low Feb 5 and key S/T support
• SUP 2: $74.82 - Low Jan 03
• SUP 3: $72.96 - Low Dec 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $70.99 - Low Jun 23 ‘23

Recent gains in Brent futures appear to be a correction - for now. However, a continuation higher would expose key short-term resistance at $84.17, the Jan 29 high. Clearance of this level would cancel the recent bearish threat and highlight a stronger reversal. This would open $86.03, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the downside, the trigger for a resumption of the downtrend is $76.62, the Feb 5 low.

WTI TECHS: (H4) Recent Gains Appear To Be A Correction

• RES 4: $86.68 - High Sep 19 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $85.71 - High Oct 20
• RES 2: $82.34 - 76.4% retracement of the Sep 19 - Dec 13 bear cycle
• RES 1: $78.77/79.29 - High Feb 13 / High Jan 29 and key resistance
• PRICE: $76.30 @ 07:07 GMT Feb 15
• SUP 1: $74.95/71.41 - 50-day EMA / Low Feb 5
• SUP 2: $69.56 - Low Jan 3
• SUP 3: $68.28 - Low Dec 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $65.63 - Low Jun 12

Recent gains in WTI futures, since Feb 5, appears to be a correction - for now. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $79.29, the Jan 29 high. Clearance of this level would be a bullish development. On the downside, support to watch lies at $71.41, the Feb 5 low. A break of this level would reinstate the recent bearish theme and pave the way for a move towards $69.56, the Jan 3 low.

GOLD TECHS: Bearish Following This Week’s Break Lower

• RES 4: $2135.4 - High Dec 4 and all-time high
• RES 3: $2097.1 - 76.4% retracement of the Dec 4 - 13 bear leg
• RES 2: $2088.5 - High Jan 12 / High Dec 28
• RES 1: $2024.4/2065.5 - 20-day EMA / High Feb 1
• PRICE: $1993.3 @ 07:13 GMT Feb 15
• SUP 1: $1984.3 - Low Feb 14
• SUP 2: $1973.2 - Low Dec 13 and key support
• SUP 3: $1931.7 - Low Nov 13
• SUP 4: $1908.3 - Low Oct 16

Gold has traded lower this week and in the process, the move has resulted in a break of $2001.9, the Jan 17 low and a key short-term support. The breach highlights a resumption of the bear leg that started Dec 28. A continuation lower would open $1973.2, the Dec 13 low and the next key support. On the upside, the yellow metal needs to clear resistance at $2065.5, the Feb 1 high, to reinstate a bullish theme.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Conditions Still Intact

• RES 4: $26.135 - High May 5 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $25.761 - High Dec 4 and key resistance
• RES 2: $24.606/994 - High Dec 22 / 76.4% of Dec 4 - 13 bear leg
• RES 1: $23.534 - High Jan 12
• PRICE: $22.504 @ 07:53 GMT Feb 15
• SUP 1: $21.883 - Low Nov 13 and a key support
• SUP 2: $20.689 - Low Oct 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support
• SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 2023

A bearish theme in Silver remains intact and this week’s move lower reinforces this theme. The recent breach of support at $22.510, the Dec 13 low, signals scope for a move to $21.883, the Nov 13 low. A break of this level would further strengthen the bearish theme. On the upside, initial key short-term resistance to watch is $23.534, the Jan 12 high. Clearance of this level would be bullish and highlight a stronger reversal.