MNI DATA IMPACT: Canada +35K Dec. Jobs Caps Best Yr Since `07>

By Greg Quinn and Anahita Alinejad

     Ottawa (MNI) - Canada ended 2019 with another better-than-expected 

job gain to cap the best annual performance in more than a decade, 

cementing the central bank's view it can stand apart from global peers 

that have cut interest rates. 

     The number of jobs rose by 35,200 in December led by full-time 

work, faster than the MNI median of 19,600 positions. The unemployment 

rate was also better than projected with a decline to 5.6% from 5.9%, 

bringing it back towards a record low of 5.4% set in May.

     The report suggests the previous Labour Force Survey for November 

showing a 71,200 drop in jobs -- the biggest since the last recession in 

2009-- was probably a one-off.

     The December report's details were also mostly strong. Wages rose 

3.6% from a year earlier, slower than November's 4.5% but still well 

ahead of the BOC's 2% target for consumer price inflation. Full-time job 

growth grew by 38,400 while lower-paying part-time work declined by 

3,200 in December. 

     More importantly, the job trend remains strong. Employment rose by 

about 320,000 in December from a year ago, or by 1.7%, faster than a 

1.1% gain in 2018. On an annual basis the 2.1% rise in jobs was the 

best since 2007, Ottawa-based Statistics Canada's figures published 

Friday showed.

     Even Canada's manufacturing sector that posted two previous big job 

losses stabilized in December, easing concern that global trade tensions 

that Governor Poloz has cited as the top risk are being contained. 

Investors predict the BOC will hold the G7's highest policy rate at 

1.75% at its next meeting on Jan. 22, and Poloz said yesterday the 

economy has been near full potential over the last two years. 

     Still, the economy is on track to slow to growth of 1% or 

less in the fourth quarter as Canada continues to ring up trade 

deficits and business investment fails to make a consistent healthy 

contribution. The BOC had already factored in slower growth and falling 

exports in the fourth quarter in its last outlook.

     Hotel and restaurant jobs led the December increase with 24,900 

positions, followed by construction with a 17,000. The new jobs were 

also led by a 56,900 gain at private employers, which some economists 

see as a better barometer of demand than government jobs, which declined 

by 21,500 on the month.

--MNI Ottawa Bureau; +1-613-314-9647; greg.quinn@marketnews.com

     [TOPICS: M$C$$$,MACDS$,MAUDR$]