MNI DATA PREVIEW: Canadian Employment Growth To Pause in March

By Yali N'Diaye

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Monthly employment is expected to be flat in March after

stronger-than-expected gains of 55,900 in February and 66,800 in January,

according to a MNI survey, with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 5.8%.

The Bloomberg consensus is at +10,000, with the unemployment rate also stable.

The unemployment rate has been below 6% since September 2018.

     Ahead of the release on Friday, we outline important themes for particular

attention.

     - Private jobs increased 31,800 in February, explaining much of the total

55,900 employment gain. Over the past six months, private employment has

averaged 50,000 per month, with increases every month except in December.

     - Average weekly wage growth for permanent workers peaked at 3.9% in May

2018 and then slowed to 1.5% by December 2018. However, the 12-month rate picked

up to 1.8% in January and 2.2% in February. The payrolls measure of wage

pressures also increased to 2.0% in January from 1.7% in December.

     - The last two jobs reports have been characterized by higher full-time

employment, which has been the driving force over the past six months: of a

total of 289,600 jobs created, 175,500 - or 61% - were full-time.

     - Over the past six months, services have led the measure of job creations,

with employment up 240,400, compared to 49,100 for goods-producing industries.

With Alberta's mandatory oil production cuts in effect since January, it will be

interesting to see how the oil sector and the province are affected. In

February, the natural resource sector added 8,000 jobs, after shedding 4,600

positions in January.

--MNI Ottawa Bureau; +1 613 869-0916; email: yali.ndiaye@marketnews.com

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