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Bears Still in Control

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Tops 0.80 as Reflationary Theme Rolls On

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Volatile, Outlook Remains Bearish

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Accelerates Off Bull Trigger

     TOKYO (MNI) - The following are the forecasts by economists polled by MNI
for the quarterly Bank of Japan Tankan business survey for March due out at 0850
JST on Monday, April 2 (2350 GMT on April 1).
     On March 2, the BOJ said it had made slight revisions to previous Tankan
figures after conducting a routine shuffling of sample firms, which takes place
every few years, as well as introducing a new sampling method based on sales,
instead of the number of employees.
Data                           Median Forecast  Previous Survey  Previous Survey
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                    Old Formula      New Formula
Large Mfg DI                                26               25               26
Large Non-Mfg DI                            24               23               25
Small Mfg DI                                14               15               15
Small Non-Mfg DI                             8                9                9
FY18 Capex by Big Firms (%)                0.6              n/a              n/a
FY18 Capex by Small Firms (%)            -19.4              n/a              n/a
Sentiment Diffusion Index
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                           Large-mfg  Large Non-mfg  Small mfg  Small Non-mfg
Median Forecast                   26             24         14              8
High Forecast                     27             26         15             10
Low Forecast                      24             23         11              4
Previous Survey                   26             25         15              9
No. of Responses                  10             10         10             10
Mitsubishi Research               27             25         14              8
Fujitsu Research                  26             24         15              9
Mizuho Research                   26             23         14              8
Mitsubishi UFJ Research           26             26         14              9
BNP Paribas                       26             25         13              8
Mitsubishi UFJ MS                 25             24         15              9
Daiwa Research                    25             25         13              8
SMBC Nikko                        24             23         15             10
Japan Research                    24             24         12              7
Sumitomo Mitsui AM                24             23         11              4
Fiscal 2018 Capex Plans (% y/y)
---------------------------------------------------------
                                 Large firms  Small firms
Median Forecast                          0.6        -19.4
High Forecast                            5.2        -15.5
Low Forecast                            -0.4        -22.0
Previous Survey                          n/a          n/a
FY17 Plans in Mar 17                     0.6        -22.6
No. of Responses                           9            9
Mitsubishi Research                      n/a          n/a
Fujitsu Research                        -0.1        -20.2
Mizuho Research                          5.2        -21.2
Mitsubishi UFJ Research                 -0.4        -17.0
BNP Paribas                              0.6        -18.6
Mitsubishi UFJ MS                        4.4        -20.5
Daiwa Research                          -0.3        -18.5
SMBC Nikko                               3.0        -15.5
Japan Research                           0.9        -22.0
Sumitomo Mitsui AM                       0.1        -19.4
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +86 (10) 8532-5998; email: flora.guo@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,MAJDA$,M$A$$$,M$J$$$]