MNI DATA SURVEY: UK PSNB, Infla, PPI, Retail Sales and GDP Rev

By Jai Lakhani

     LONDON (MNI) - Given the fact that the UK Public Sector Net Borrowing data

released Tuesday is the first of the tax year, there is some wide discrepancies

amongst analysts meaning the median estimate may be slightly misleading.

Previously, net borrowing excluding financial intermediaries stood at stg1.3 bn

for the month of March and was stg0.8 bn lower than in March 2017. One thing

analysts do agree on is that this figure for the month of April will be much

higher than the previous stg1.3 bn. 

     Analysts cite the weakness of the economy in the first quarter as a

contributing factor to bucking the rate of decline. MNI median estimates imply

public sector net borrowing excluding intermediaries will be stg8.5 bn for the

month of April. 

                    Public-Finances

-----------------------------------

                             PSNB-X

                             stg bn

Date Out                     22-May

MNI Median                      8.5

Forecast High                   9.8

Forecast Low                    7.5

Standard Deviation              0.6

Count                            10

Prior                           1.3

Berenberg                       8.0

Capital Economics               8.5

Credit Suisse                   8.0

Investec                        8.7

JP Morgan                       9.2

Lloyds TSB                      8.5

Nomura                          9.8

Oxford Economics                8.8

Pantheon                        7.5

Societe Generale                8.5

     The widely anticipated inflation data on Wednesday has analysts expecting

CPI and CPIH y/y to remain unchanged with the MNI median coming in at 2.5% and

2.3% respectively. The m/m growth in CPI is expected to see a strong increase

from 0.1% previously to 0.5%. However, much of the upward pressure on headline

CPI is coming from non-core elements such as sugar taxes and oil price

increases. Consequently, it is not surprising that analysts anticipate core CPI

to drop slightly from March y/y growth of 2.3% to April's 2.2% growth. 

     Retail Price Index (RPI) is anticipated to rise slightly on a y/y basis

from 3.3% in March to 3.4% in April. The m/m figure is anticipated to rise more

sharply from 0.1% to 0.5%. The RPI Index Value is expected to as a result rise a

touch from 278.3 to 279.8. 

                        CPI     CPI    CPIH  Core CPI  RPI Index     RPI     RPI

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                      % MoM   % YoY   % YoY     % YoY      Value   % MoM   % YoY

Date Out             23-May  23-May  23-May    23-May     23-May  23-May  23-May

MNI Median              0.5     2.5     2.3       2.2      279.8     0.5     3.4

Forecast High           0.6     2.6     2.4       2.4      280.1     0.6     3.5

Forecast Low            0.3     2.3     2.2       2.1      279.5     0.4     3.3

Standard Deviation      0.1     0.1     0.1       0.1        0.3     0.1     0.1

Count                     6      15       4        10          4       5       7

Prior                   0.1     2.5     2.3       2.3      278.3     0.1     3.3

Bayern                  N/A     N/A     N/A       N/A        N/A     N/A     N/A

Barclays                0.6     2.6     2.4       2.3      279.9     0.6     3.4

Berenberg               N/A     2.6     N/A       2.4        N/A     N/A     N/A

Capital Economics       0.5     2.5     2.3       2.2        N/A     0.5     3.4

Credit Suisse           N/A     2.5     N/A       2.3        N/A     N/A     N/A

Commerzbank             0.3     2.3     N/A       N/A        N/A     N/A     N/A

Daiwa Capital

Markets                 N/A     2.4     N/A       2.1        N/A     N/A     N/A

Investec                0.6     2.6     N/A       2.3        N/A     0.5     3.4

JP Morgan               N/A     2.6     N/A       2.2      280.1     N/A     3.5

Lloyds TSB              0.4     2.4     2.2       2.1      279.6     0.5     3.3

Nomura                  N/A     2.5     N/A       N/A        N/A     N/A     3.4

Oxford Economics        N/A     2.5     N/A       N/A        N/A     N/A     N/A

Pantheon                N/A     2.4     N/A       N/A        N/A     N/A     N/A

Standard Chartered      N/A     2.6     N/A       N/A        N/A     N/A     N/A

Societe Generale        0.4     2.4     2.2       2.2      279.5     0.4     3.3

UniCredit               N/A     2.4     N/A       2.1        N/A     N/A     N/A

     PPI input is expected by analysts to increase sharply on a y/y basis.

Previously, y/y growth was at 4.2% for March, however, MNI analysts expect a y/y

increase of 5.8% for April. Undoubtedly, this has been driven by the 6.7%

monthly rise in sterling oil prices in April as well as a continued rise in

energy prices. 

     As suppliers are likely to have passed some of these higher input costs

onto consumers, PPI output on a m/m basis is expected to increase from 0.2%

previously to 0.3% for April. On a y/y basis, PPI output is expected to fall

slightly from 2.4% in March to 2.3% in April. Core PPI output is also expected

to rise on a m/m basis from 0.1% in March to 0.3% in April. 

     The BRC was very under-whelming for the month of April which would suggest

a contraction in the measure of annual retail sales growth. Also of note is the

bounce back in the CBI Distributive Trades Survey in April still being below

February's level, suggesting that even after bad weather, sales growth may have

lost some momentum. 

     Thus, it is not surprising analysts see a fall in the y/y figures for

retail sales but a rise in the m/m growth. Y/y retail and core retail sales is

expected to fall from 1.1% in March to 0.2% and 0.4% respectively. The m/m

figures are expected to see a rise in both retail sales and core retail sales

from -1.2% and -0.5% respectively in March to 0.9% and 0.0% respectively in

April. 

                       Retail Sales  Retail Sales  Retail Sales  Retail Sales

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

                       Incl. Petrol  Incl. Petrol  Excl. Petrol  Excl. Petrol

                              % MoM         % YoY         % MoM         % YoY

Date Out                     24-May        24-May        24-May        24-May

MNI Median                      0.9           0.2           0.0           0.4

Forecast High                   1.2           1.1           1.0           1.5

Forecast Low                   -0.2          -0.7          -0.6          -0.9

Standard Deviation              0.5           0.6           0.7           0.9

Count                             8             6             6             5

Prior                          -1.2           1.1          -0.5           1.1

Barclays                        0.9           0.2           N/A           N/A

Capital Economics               0.9           0.2           N/A           N/A

Credit Suisse                   N/A           N/A          -0.5           N/A

Commerzbank                     0.0          -0.7           N/A           N/A

Daiwa Capital Markets           N/A           N/A           N/A           N/A

Investec                        0.6          -0.1           0.5           0.1

Lloyds TSB                      1.2           0.5           1.0           0.6

Nomura                          N/A           N/A           0.8           0.4

Oxford Economics                0.8           1.1           N/A           N/A

Pantheon                        1.0           N/A           N/A           N/A

Standard Chartered              N/A           N/A           N/A           1.5

Societe Generale                N/A           N/A          -0.5          -0.9

UniCredit                      -0.2           N/A          -0.6           N/A

     One piece of data where analysts seem to have no disagreement is on the

second GDP estimate for the first quarter of 2018. Fifteen out of sixteen

estimates believe the initial q/q estimate of 0.1% will be unchanged and eleven

out of eleven analysts predicting the y/y rate at 1.2%. 

                       Second GDP  Second GDP

---------------------------------------------

                         Estimate    Estimate

                             rate        rate

                            % Q/Q       % Y/Y

Date Out                   25-May      25-May

MNI Median                    0.1         1.2

Forecast High                 0.2         1.2

Forecast Low                  0.1         1.2

Standard Deviation            0.0         0.0

Count                          16          11

Prior                         0.4         1.4

Bayern                        0.1         N/A

Barclays                      0.1         1.2

Berenberg                     0.1         N/A

Capital Economics             0.1         1.2

Credit Suisse                 0.1         1.2

Commerzbank                   0.1         N/A

Daiwa Capital Markets         0.1         1.2

Investec                      0.1         1.2

JP Morgan                     0.1         1.2

Lloyds TSB                    0.1         1.2

Nomura                        0.1         1.2

Oxford Economics              0.1         1.2

Pantheon                      0.1         N/A

Standard Chartered            0.2         N/A

Societe Generale              0.1         1.2

UniCredit                     0.1         1.2

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203 865 3828; email: jai.lakhani@marketnews.com

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com