MNI: December Chicago Business Barometer Adjusted Lower

--Seasonal Adjustments Weigh On Dec Barometer, Adjusted to 63.8 From 65.4

--Stronger Growth In H1 2018 Offset By Lower Growth in Q4

By Jai Lakhani

     LONDON (MNI) - The December Chicago Business Barometer was revised down to

63.8 from 65.4 previously, following the annual seasonal adjustments. 

     Growth was revised higher in Q1 and Q2, and was unchanged in Q3. However, a

downward revision to Q4 saw the Barometer unchanged over 2018 to one decimal

place. 

     November saw the largest revision, with the Barometer revised down 2.9

points to 63.5 from its initial estimate of 66.4. Activity in the second half of

the year was revised down by 3.5 points, led by the downward November revision

made to the Barometer. In the first half of the year, growth was revised up by

2.8 points, suggesting economic activity cooled during the latter stages of 2018

after higher growth over H1 2018 than initially estimated. 

     Of the five components that make up the headline Barometer, it was Order

Backlogs that saw the biggest downward revision over H2 2018, revised down by

1.1 points. Production and New Orders were also revised down over the second

half of 2018, both by 0.7 points. Employment and Supplier Deliveries were

revised higher over the second half, by 0.1 and 0.3 points respectively.

Inventories, which does not contribute to the Barometer, was revised higher by

0.3 points over H2 2018, but lower by 0.1 points over 2018.

     All series in the Chicago Report are seasonally adjusted by the Census X-13

procedure and the seasonal adjustment factors are recalculated annually in

January.

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203 865 3828; email: jai.lakhani@marketnews.com

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2223; email: david.robinson@marketnews.com

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