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MNI Europe Pi (Positioning Indicator): Gilt, Buxl Move Short

MNI Europe Pi (Positioning Indicator): Gilt, Buxl Move Short

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

Structural positioning has shifted across the Europe FI futures space since our last update a month ago. While the Dec21 to Mar21 roll at end-Nov/early Dec distorts readings somewhat, there has been a move to short territory for two previously ""flat"" contracts (Buxl and Gilt), with OAT flipping from very short to long.

FULL PDF ANALYSIS:

MNIPi20Dec2021.pdf


  • GERMANY: Futures positioning continued to be flat across most contracts: this includes Schatz, Bund, and Bobl. (A month ago, Bobl was the only structural long in our Pi matrix.) All three of those contracts saw longs set last week. Worth noting that Buxl has gone from flat to short - including shorts set last week.
  • OAT: structural positioning has fully reversed since our last update, going fro very short to long, with the most recent week seeing longs set.
  • GILT: Structural positioning in Gilts is currently the shortest in our Europe Pi, after spending a long stretch in flat territory. Last week saw shorts set.
  • BTP: Structural positioning has pulled back to flat from very short levels seen throughout November and early December. Long-setting was seen last week.

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