MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

21 August 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (U17) Below 21-DMA To Shift Focus Lower

*RES 4: 164.79 Low June 21 now resistance

*RES 3: 164.64 High Aug 10

*RES 2: 164.48 High Aug 18

*RES 1: 164.21 Hourly resistance Aug 18

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 164.07

*SUP 1: 164.00 Low Aug 18

*SUP 2: 163.69 Hourly support Aug 16, Daily Bull channel base

*SUP 3: 163.37 100-DMA

*SUP 4: 163.14 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The aggressive rejection ahead of the 164.64 resistance Friday is a

concern for bulls when combined with daily studies looking to correct from O/B.

The 163.14-69 support region is key this week. Bears need a close below the

21-DMA to end bullish hopes and hint at a shift lower in focus with below 162.50

to confirm focus on 161.02-37. Bulls now need a close above 164.21 to return

focus to 164.64-90 where the falling daily TL is noted.

BOBL TECHS: (U17) Key Resistance Capping

*RES 4: 132.95 High June 21 

*RES 3: 132.87 High Aug 11 

*RES 2: 132.79 Hourly resistance Aug 14 

*RES 1: 132.75 High Aug 15 - 17

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 132.70

*SUP 1: 132.57 Hourly support Aug 16

*SUP 2: 132.49 Low Aug 16

*SUP 3: 132.46 High Aug 8 now support

*SUP 4: 132.32 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips last week defined although failure ahead

of the 132.87-95 resistance region is less than ideal as daily studies look to

correct from O/B. Bulls need a close above 132.95 to reconfirm a bullish bias

initially targeting 133.26. Layers of support are noted 132.15-57 with bears

needing a close below the 100-DMA to add weight to their case and below the bull

channel base (132.15) to initially target 131.82.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U17) Above 112.190 Targets 112.230/270

*RES 4: 112.270 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 112.230 Monthly High June 12 

*RES 2: 112.205 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 112.190 High Aug 11 & 14

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.150

*SUP 1: 112.140 21-WMA 

*SUP 2: 112.130 High Aug 1 

*SUP 3: 112.125 Bull channel base 

*SUP 4: 112.100 Hourly support Aug 9, 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Sideways trading 112.130-190 persists with bulls taking comfort in

support emerging on dips. The Bollinger top remains the key concern having

recently limited follow through. Bears look for a close below 112.130 to confirm

an easing of bullish pressure and below the 21-DMA to target 112.020-060 where

key DMAs are situated. Bulls need a close above 112.190 ease pressure on support

layers and reconfirm a bullish bias targeting 112.230-270.

GILT TECHS: (U17) Topside Follow Through Lacking

*RES 4: 129.01 High June 15 

*RES 3: 128.68 High June 21 

*RES 2: 128.24 High Aug 11 

*RES 1: 127.95 High Aug 18

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 127.62

*SUP 1: 127.22 Low Aug 16 

*SUP 2: 127.06 Low Aug 9 

*SUP 3: 126.87 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: 126.76 Hourly resistance Aug 7 now support

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging ahead of the 126.54-127.06 region continues and is

less than ideal for bears who need a close below the 55-DMA to hint at a shift

lower in focus and below 126.54 confirming a move initially targeting 125.62.

Correcting O/B studies remain the key concern for bulls who now need a close

above 128.24 to reconfirm the bullish bias and initially target 128.68-129.19.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (Z17) 99.620 & 99.650 Levels Remain Key

*RES 4: 99.690 2017 Highs June 12 & 13

*RES 3: 99.685 Weekly Bollinger band top

*RES 2: 99.667 Bollinger band top

*RES 1: 99.650 High June 21 & Aug Repeatedly

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.650

*SUP 1: 99.630 Repeated Daily Lows Aug

*SUP 2: 99.620 Low Aug 8 & 9

*SUP 3: 99.612 21-DMA

*SUP 4: 99.600 Low Aug 4

*COMMENTARY: The 99.650 resistance continues to cap attempts to break for a

fresh leg higher targeting 99.690 2017 highs. Initial support is noted at 99.630

but bears look for a close below 99.620 to gain breathing room and below the

21-DMA to shift focus to 55 & 100-DMAs 99.588-595. The Bollinger top (99.667)

remains the key concern for bulls with potential to limit follow through.

EURIBOR TECHS: (H18) Sideways Trading Defining

*RES 4: 100.375 - High Oct 4 

*RES 3: 100.360 - High Oct 6 

*RES 2: 100.330 - High Oct 19 

*RES 1: 100.310 - 2017 High Aug 11 - 18

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.305

*SUP 1: 100.300 - Low Aug 11 - 16

*SUP 2: 100.297 - 21-DMA

*SUP 3: 100.284 - 55-DMA

*SUP 4: 100.275 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: The support at 100.285 provided the base for a rally and fresh 2017

& 10mth highs with bullish focus now on the 100.330-360 region last seen in Oct

2016. Sideways trading defined last week. Layers of support remain with bears

needing a close below the 21-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below the 55-DMA

to signal a correction that initially targets the 100-DMA (100.269).

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U17) Topside Follow Through Lacking

*RES 4: 127-080 - Monthly High June 14 

*RES 3: 127-070 - 200-WMA, Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 2: 127-010 - High Aug 18 

*RES 1: 126-260 - Hourly support Aug 18 now resistance

*PRICE: 126-210 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 126-180 - Low Aug 18

*SUP 2: 126-110 - Low Aug 17

*SUP 3: 126-020 - Daily Bull channel base

*SUP 4: 125-290 - Low Aug 8

*COMMENTARY: The 125-290/010 support region confirmed significance Wednesday

with the contact recovering from a close below 21 (126-080) & 55 (126-040) DMAs.

Fresh 2mth highs Friday lacked follow through with bulls needing a close above

126-260 today to retain immediate focus on 127-070/080 and overall focus on a

test of the 100-WMA (127-310). The 126-110 support remains key with bears

needing a close below to shift focus back to 125-290/126-010.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Focus On 2017 Low

*RES 4: 2.264 - Hourly support Aug 16 now resistance

*RES 3: 2.250 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*RES 2: 2.229 - Hourly resistance Aug 17 

*RES 1: 2.210 - High Aug 18

*PRICE: 2.203 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.172 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 2: 2.164 - Low Aug 18 

*SUP 3: 2.121 - Low June 26 

*SUP 4: 2.103 - 2017 Low June 14

*COMMENTARY: The 2.289 resistance confirmed significance with the yield rejected

ahead of this level and the sell-off resulting in bearish closes last week.

Initial focus has returned to 2.053-121 where 2017 lows and the 100-WMA are

situated. Layers of resistance are accumulating and weighing with bulls needing

a close above 2.229 to ease bearish pressure and above 2.264 to shift initial

focus back to 2.289.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 3456.15 

*RES 4: 3501.84 55-DMA, Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 3: 3497.29 High Aug 16 

*RES 2: 3484.66 High Aug 17 

*RES 1: 3456.15 Low Aug 17 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3446.03

*SUP 1: 3420.50 Low Aug 18 

*SUP 2: 3417.03 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: 3393.42 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: 3390.04 Low Mar 14

*COMMENTARY: Attempts to break higher last week were stifled by layers of

resistance 3497.29-3539.48 where key DMAs and the bear channel top are situated.

The lack of downside follow through Friday was less than ideal for bears with

bulls now needing a close above 3456.15 to return pressure to key resistance

layers. While 3456.15 caps immediate focus shifts back to the 3355.40-3393.42

support region where the 200-DMA is situated.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]