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MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis 

4 August 2017
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Below $1.1763 To Hint At Correction
*RES 4: $1.2352 High Dec 18 2014 
*RES 3: $1.2254 High Dec 25 2014 
*RES 2: $1.2095 Low Dec 31 2014 now resistance 2 
*RES 1: $1.1909 2017 High Aug 2
*PRICE: $1.1886 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1861 Hourly support Aug 3 
*SUP 2: $1.1818 Hourly support Aug 2 
*SUP 3: $1.1784 Low Aug 1 
*SUP 4: $1.1763 Hourly resistance July 31 now support
*COMMENTARY: O/B daily studies looking to correct remain the key concern for
bulls as pressure returns to 2017 highs. Bulls look for a close above $1.1909 to
reconfirm the bullish bias and retain focus on $1.2254. Support layers are again
building. Bears need a close below $1.1.1818 to gain breathing room and below
$1.1763 to add weight to the case for a move back to $1.1583-1.1648 where the
21-DMA ($1.1625) is located.
CABLE TECHS: Bearish Key Day Reversal
*RES 4: $1.3259 2017 High July 3 
*RES 3: $1.3208 Hourly support Aug 3 now resistance 
*RES 2: $1.3191 Hourly support Aug 1 now resistance 
*RES 1: $1.3155 Hourly resistance Aug 3
*PRICE: $1.3139 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3113 Low Aug 3 
*SUP 2: $1.3094 Low July 31 
*SUP 3: $1.3052 Low July 27 
*SUP 4: $1.3046 21-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2017 highs lacked follow through Thursday with the sell-off
resulting in a bearish key day reversal and focus back on layers of support
$1.3046-1.3094 where the 21-DMA and rising daily TL are located. Correcting O/B
daily studies add weight to the bearish case with below $1.3046 initially
targeting $1.2920-1.3004 where the 55-DMA ($1.2920) is noted. Bulls need a close
above $1.3208 to shift focus back to 2017 highs.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Retain Focus On June Low
*RES 4: Y111.39 Hourly resistance July 27 
*RES 3: Y110.98 High Aug 2 
*RES 2: Y110.56 Hourly support Aug 3 now resistance 
*RES 1: Y110.28 Hourly resistance Aug 3
*PRICE: Y110.05 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y109.71 55-WMA 
*SUP 2: Y109.28 Bollinger band base 
*SUP 3: Y109.25 Low June 15 
*SUP 4: Y108.69 Monthly Low June 14
*COMMENTARY: Bears put an end to correction talk with the pair remaining capped
ahead of Wednesday's highs and fresh 2mth lows that retain initial focus on
tests of June lows and then 2017 lows (Y108.13). O/S daily studies looking to
correct remain the key concern for bears. Bulls now need a close above Y110.56
to ease immediate bearish pressure and above Y110.98 to shift focus back to
layers of resistance Y111.39-112.87 where key DMAs are situated.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Y129.47-95 Support Key
*RES 4: Y132.23 2016 High Jan 29 2016 
*RES 3: Y131.64 High Feb 4 2016 
*RES 2: Y131.40 2017 High Aug 2 
*RES 1: Y130.86 2017 High Aug 2
*PRICE: Y130.80 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y130.52 Hourly support Aug 4 
*SUP 2: Y129.95 21-DMA 
*SUP 3: Y129.89 Low Aug 1 
*SUP 4: Y129.47 Low July 31
*COMMENTARY: The sell-off has again found support ahead of the 21-DMA with bears
needing a close below Y129.47 to confirm a break and shift focus to
Y127.44-128.72. Bulls look for a close above Y130.86 today to retain focus on
Y131.64-132.23. The 200-WMA comes in around Y130.65 with bulls needing a weekly
close above to add support to their case. The Bollinger top (Y131.24) is the key
concern for bulls & currently limits follow through.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Above Gbp0.9068 Targets Gbp0.9156-0.9270
*RES 4: Gbp0.9156 Daily Bull channel top
*RES 3: Gbp0.9068 High Oct 13
*RES 2: Gbp0.9058 Bollinger band top
*RES 1: Gbp0.9048 2017 High Aug 3
*PRICE: Gbp0.9041 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Gbp0.9025 High Nov 9 now support 
*SUP 2: Gbp0.8994 High July 21 now support 
*SUP 3: Gbp0.8988 High Aug 2 now support 
*SUP 4: Gbp0.8968 Hourly resistance Aug 2 now support
*COMMENTARY: The Gbp0.8922 support confirmed significance providing the platform
for an aggressive rally to fresh 2017 and 10mth highs that sees bulls initially
focused on Gbp0.9068. A close above this level is needed to target
Gbp0.9156-0.9270 where the bull channel top and 2016 highs are located. Bears
need a close below Gbp0.9025 to gain breathing room and below Gbp0.8988 to shift
focus back to Gbp0.8922.
AUSSIE TECHS: Above $0.7998 To Shift Focus Back to 2017 Highs
*RES 4: $0.8065 - 2017 High July 27 
*RES 3: $0.8044 - High Aug 1 
*RES 2: $0.8015 - Hourly support Aug 1 now resistance 
*RES 1: $0.7998 - Hourly resistance Aug 1
*PRICE: $0.7968 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7905 - Hourly support July 25 
*SUP 2: $0.7874 - Low July 21 
*SUP 3: $0.7871 - 21-DMA 
*SUP 4: $0.7838 - High July 17 now support
*COMMENTARY: The rejection ahead of recent 2017 highs and relatively bearish
closes is less than ideal for bulls given daily studies correcting from O/B.
Pressure on $0.7934 took its toll with bears now focused on the $0.7838-74
region where the 21-DMA is located. Bulls take comfort in support emerging ahead
of $0.7905 and now look for a close above $0.7998 to shift focus initial focus
back to $0.8044-65 where 2017 highs are located.
US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 93.650
*RES 4: 94.285 - High July 26 
*RES 3: 94.103 - High July 27 
*RES 2: 93.650 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 
*RES 1: 93.161 - Hourly resistance July 31
*PRICE: 92.813 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 92.548 - 2017 Low Aug 2
*SUP 2: 92.330 - 200-WMA
*SUP 3: 92.079 - Bollinger band base
*SUP 4: 91.919 - 2016 Low May 3 2016
*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2017 and 15mth lows lacked follow through Wednesday with
support emerging ahead of the 200-WMA. Initial resistance is noted at 93.161
with bulls needing a close above to gain breathing room whereas above 93.650 is
needed to shift immediate focus back to 94.297-465 where the 21-DMA is situated.
Bears now need a close below 91.919 to reconfirm a bearish bias targeting
86.80-87.65.
US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Focus On 2017 Low
*RES 4: 2.285 - Hourly support July 31 now resistance
*RES 3: 2.275 - Hourly resistance Aug 2
*RES 2: 2.251 - Hourly resistance Aug 3
*RES 1: 2.235 - Hourly support Aug 3 now resistance
*PRICE: 2.223 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 2.200 - Bollinger band base 
*SUP 2: 2.177 - High June 21 now support 
*SUP 3: 2.121 - Low June 26 
*SUP 4: 2.103 - 2017 Low June 14
*COMMENTARY: Failure to trouble 2.285 leaves the yield looking heavy having
closed below the 2.229 support and 200-WMA (2.228) with bears focused on tests
of 2017 lows. Layers of resistance are accumulating with bulls needing a close
above 2.251 to gain breathing room and confirm a break above the 55-DMA (2.245).
Overall a close above the 200-DMA (2.309) is now needed to shift focus back to
2.337 and then 2.346-396 where the bear channel top and July highs are located.
NYMEX WTI TECHS: (U17) Bears Look for Close Below $47.86 
*RES 4: $50.68 - Daily Bear channel top 
*RES 3: $50.10 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 
*RES 2: $49.44 - Hourly support Aug 3 now resistance 
*RES 1: $49.09 - Hourly resistance Aug 4
*PRICE: $48.94 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $48.38 - Low Aug 1 
*SUP 2: $48.25 - Low July 27 
*SUP 3: $47.86 - Low July 26 
*SUP 4: $47.42 - 21-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Daily studies correcting from O/B remain the key concern for bulls
with U17 looking a little heavy. Bears continue to look for a close below $47.86
to shift immediate focus to $47.03-42 where 21 & 55-DMAs are located. Below the
55-DMA is needed to initially target $45.16 with below the channel base ($46.12)
confirming. Bulls now need a close above $49.44 to ease bearish pressure and
shift focus back to $50.10-51.23 where the 200-DMA is noted.
SPOT GOLD TECHS: Above $1280.8 To Reconfirm Focus on 2017 High
*RES 4: $1295.9 - 2017 High June 6 
*RES 3: $1285.2 - Bollinger band top 
*RES 2: $1280.8 - High June 14 
*RES 1: $1274.0 - High Aug 1
*PRICE: $1267.7 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1264.4 - Hourly resistance Aug 3 now support 
*SUP 2: $1257.2 - Low Aug 3 
*SUP 3: $1257.0 - Low July 28 
*SUP 4: $1253.7 - 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Despite daily studies remaining O/B and looking for a correction
bulls take comfort in the recovery from a dip back towards layers of support
$1243.4-1257.0 where key DMAs and bull channel base ($1253.2) are situated.
Bulls continue to look for a close above $1280.8 to reconfirm the bullish bias
and initially target 2017 highs. Bears now need a close below $1264.4 to gain
breathing room and shift focus to $1253.2-1257.2.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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