MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

29 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Initial Focus On $1.2199-1.2240

*RES 4: $1.2477 High Mar 27

*RES 3: $1.2433 Hourly support Mar 26 now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2371 Low Mar 27 now resistance

*RES 1: $1.2335 Hourly support Mar 28 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.2327 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2285 Low Mar 22 

*SUP 2: $1.2240 Low Mar 20 

*SUP 3: $1.2199 Daily Bull channel base off Nov Low 

*SUP 4: $1.2153 Low Mar 1

*COMMENTARY: Failure to capitalise on Monday's gains was a concern for bulls and

leaves the pair looking offered with immediate focus back on $1.2199-1.2240

where the bull channel base is noted. Layers of resistance accumulating add

weight to the bearish case. Bulls need a close above $1.2371 to gain breathing

room and above $1.2477 to retain focus on $1.2555-1.2625 where the LT bear

channel top off 2008 highs is located.

     CABLE TECHS: Flirting With Key Support

*RES 4: $1.4271 200-WMA 

*RES 3: $1.4200 High Mar 28 

*RES 2: $1.4127 Hourly support Mar 28 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1.4091 Hourly resistance Mar 28

*PRICE: $1.4082 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3984 Low Mar 20 

*SUP 2: $1.3973 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1.3873 Low Mar 13 

*SUP 4: $1.3709 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 200-WMA has resulted in a correction that

sees the pair flirting with the $1.4066 support. Bears need a close below this

level to add weight to the case for a correction back to $1.3873. Correcting O/B

studies are seen weighing at present. Bulls now need a close above $1.4127 to

gain breathing room and above $1.4200 to return focus to $1.4271-1.4349 where

the 200-WMA & 2018 high are located.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 21-DMA

*RES 4: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y107.73 55-DMA 

*RES 2: Y107.29 High Mar 13 

*RES 1: Y107.13 Bollinger band top

*PRICE: Y106.58 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y106.08 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y105.29 Hourly resistance Mar 23 now support 

*SUP 3: Y104.55 2018 Low Mar 26 

*SUP 4: Y104.26 LT Rising TL off 2016 low

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from the LT rising TL off 2016 lows received a boost

with an aggressive rally that sees immediate focus on the Y107.29-108.03

resistance region. Bulls need a close above Y108.03 to end bearish hopes and

shift focus to Y109.51-110.82 where key WMA and DMAs are situated. Bears

continue to look for a close below the 21-DMA to ease renewed bullish pressure

and below Y105.29 to pressure 2018 lows once more.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: 200-DMA Confirms Significance

*RES 4: Y133.17 100-DMA

*RES 3: Y132.86 55-DMA

*RES 2: Y132.44 High Mar 13

*RES 1: Y132.00 200-DMA

*PRICE: Y131.37 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.56 Low Mar 27 

*SUP 2: Y129.97 High Mar 23 now support 

*SUP 3: Y129.44 200-WMA 

*SUP 4: Y129.21 55-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Despite flirting with key WMAs bears failed to gain traction below

the 55 (Y129.21) & 200 (Y129.44) WMAs with the bounce to start the new week

seeing focus back on the Y132.00-133.17 region where 55, 100 & 200-DMAs are

noted. Bulls need a close above the 200-DMA to shift focus to Y132.44-133.18.

Daily studies correcting from O/S are perfectly placed for a leg higher. Bears

look for a close below Y129.97 to return pressure to Y128.94-129.44.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bulls Target 2018 High While 100-WMA Supports

*RES 4: Gbp0.8839 100-DMA 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8825 55-DMA 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8807 Low Mar 16 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8777 Hourly resistance Mar 27

*PRICE: Gbp0.8752 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8731 Low Mar 28 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8707 Hourly resistance Mar 22 now support 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8667 2018 Low Mar 22 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8654 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The significance of the 100-WMA was confirmed Thursday with an

aggressive bounce from fresh 2018 & 10mth lows. Daily studies correcting from

O/S provided the impetus for a bounce back to Gbp0.8807-39 where 21, 55 &

100-DMAs are situated. The 100-WMA remains key support. Bears look for a close

below the 100-WMA to target Gbp0.8495-0.8535. A close below the 100-WMA was last

seen in Jan 2016. While the 100-WMA supports bulls target 2018 highs.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Focused On $0.7500-80

*RES 4: $0.7808 - 200-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7784 - High Mar 22

*RES 2: $0.7718 - Hourly resistance Mar 27

*RES 1: $0.7688 - Hourly resistance Mar 28

*PRICE: $0.7656 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7627 - 100-WMA, Low Dec 14 

*SUP 2: $0.7621 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: $0.7580 - High Dec 12 now support 

*SUP 4: $0.7574 - Weekly Bull channel base off 2016 low

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of $0.7784-0.7808 where key DMAs are situated

continues to hamper recovery efforts resulting in fresh 2018 lows. Bulls now

need a close above $0.7718 to gain breathing room and above the 200-DMA to

pressure $0.7842-0.7916 where the falling TL off 2018 highs and 55-DMA are

located. While the 200-DMA caps bears remain focused on $0.7500-80 with fresh

2018 lows adding weight to their case.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Pendulum Continues To Swing

*RES 4: 91.751 - Low Jan 2 now resistance 

*RES 3: 91.011 - Low Sept 8 now resistance 

*RES 2: 90.445 - High Mar 20 

*RES 1: 90.260 - Hourly resistance Mar 21

*PRICE: 89.970 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 89.833 - 55-DMA

*SUP 2: 89.714 - Hourly support Mar 28

*SUP 3: 89.534 - Hourly resistance Mar 28a now support

*SUP 4: 89.251 - Low Mar 28

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on the break of 88.960 has seen the

pendulum swing back the other way and focus having returned to 90.445. Bulls

need a close above this level to confirm a shift in focus to 91.011-751 where

the 100-DMA is located. Layers of support are again following the index higher

with bears now needing a close below 89.714 to ease renewed bullish pressure and

return initial focus to 88.955.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Flirting With 55-DMA

*RES 4: 2.936 - High Feb 21 

*RES 3: 2.859 - High Mar 27 

*RES 2: 2.815 - Low Mar 26 

*RES 1: 2.799 - Hourly support Mar 27 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.777 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.743 - Low Mar 28 

*SUP 2: 2.648 - Monthly Low Feb 6 

*SUP 3: 2.611 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: 2.609 - Low Jan 24

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take a little comfort as the yield struggles to gain traction

below the 55-DMA (2.790) and downside follow through on fresh 2mth lows lacking

Wednesday. Bulls continue to look for a close above 2.815 to gain breathing room

and above 2.859 to shift focus higher. While 2.815 caps bears now focus on

2.585-611 where the 100-DMA is noted with a close below 2.743 needed to add

weight to their case.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (K18) $63.58 & $65.67 Levels Key Today 

*RES 4: $66.66 - 2018 High Jan 25 (Cont) 

*RES 3: $66.55 - High Mar 26 

*RES 2: $65.67 - Hourly resistance Mar 27 

*RES 1: $65.13 - High Mar 28

*PRICE: $64.57 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $63.58 - Low Mar 21 

*SUP 2: $63.31 - Hourly support Mar 20 

*SUP 3: $62.73 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: $62.52 - Hourly support Mar 20a

*COMMENTARY: The rejections ahead of 2018 highs are less than ideal when

combined with daily studies at O/B levels and looking to correct as well as the

Bollinger top ($66.33) limiting follow through. The break of $63.99 has lacked

follow through with bulls now looking for a close above $65.67 to return focus

to the $66.55-66 region and above $66.66 to target $69.54-73.25 last seen in

early 2014. Bears now need a close below $63.58.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Below $1318.3 To Pressure 100 & 200-DMAs

*RES 4: $1361.7 - High Feb 16 

*RES 3: $1356.7 - High Mar 27 

*RES 2: $1347.0 - High Mar 28 

*RES 1: $1339.8 - Low Mar 27 now resistance

*PRICE: $1327.4 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1318.3 - High Mar 20 now support 

*SUP 2: $1314.5 - Rising daily TL off Dec Low 

*SUP 3: $1309.3 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from ahead of the 100-DMA is now over with immediate

focus back on the $1318.3 support. Bears need a close below this level to shift

focus back to $1293.0-1309.3 where 100 & 200-DMAs are noted. Layers of

resistance accumulating are seen weighing. Bulls now need a close above $1339.8

to gain breathing room and above $1347.0 to return pressure to $1361.7-1374.9.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]