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MNI EUROPEAN OPEN: Stabilisation

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • OMICRON CONTINUES TO SPREAD; BORDER RESTRICTIONS GET TIGHTENED
  • SOUTH AFRICAN DOCTOR SAYS PATIENTS WITH OMICRON VARIANT HAVE "VERY MILD" SYMPTOMS (RTRS)
  • MODERNA SAYS NEW VACCINE FOR OMICRON MAY BE READY IN EARLY 2022 (BBG)
  • PCRS DETECT OMICRON COVID-19 VARIANT, STUDIES UNDER WAY FOR OTHER TESTS (AFP)
  • WHO URGES CAUTION AS RESEARCHES RUSH TO LEARN MORE ABOUT OMICRON
  • LAGARDE, PANETTA SEE INFLATION SPIKE TIED TO TEMPORARY FACTORS

Fig. 1: S&P 500 E-Mini Futures (Continuation)

Source: MNI – Market News/Bloomberg


UK

CORONAVIRUS: Tougher U.K. pandemic rules are set to take effect this week as Prime Minister Boris Johnson's government seeks to buy scientists "precious weeks" to determine the risks posed by Covid-19's omicron strain. All travelers arriving in the U.K. starting at 4 a.m. on Nov. 30 must take a PCR coronavirus test on or before the second day of their stay and isolate until they receive a negative result. Face coverings will again be mandatory in shops and other indoor settings and on public transport. Booster shots may also be approved for more age groups within days, according to Health Secretary Sajid Javid. (BBG)

CORONAVIRUS: The health secretary has said it is going to be a "great Christmas" as he defended not imposing stricter restrictions to combat the new COVID variant. Sajid Javid told Sky News' Trevor Phillips On Sunday it would be "irresponsible to make guarantees" but the measures announced this week in reaction to the Omicron variant will "buy us time" to enable scientists to assess it. "People should continue with their plans as normal for Christmas, I think it's going to be a great Christmas," he said. Mr Javid said he did not think stricter measures needed to be imposed just yet as social distancing and work from home directives "carry a very heavy price, economically, socially, in terms of non-COVID health outcomes". "If one was to make decisions like that they'd have to be made very, very carefully, we're not there yet, we're nowhere near that," he added. (Sky)

CORONAVIRUS: The Covid booster vaccination scheme could be significantly expanded as early as Monday as ministers try to combat the seemingly inevitable spread of the Omicron variant, with secondary school pupils being told to wear masks in communal areas. The government's vaccines watchdog, which held an emergency meeting over the weekend, could advise the use of boosters for younger people, as well as a cut in the current six-month wait between second and booster doses, it is understood. (Guardian)

CORONAVIRUS: Secondary school students across England have been told they must once again wear face coverings in communal areas, as the government attempts to contain the spread of the new omicron Covid variant. Under the new guidance – which comes into force on Monday – all staff, visitors and pupils in Year 7 or above are "strongly advised" to wear a covering, unless they are exempt. The rule covers all education establishments including universities, as well as childcare settings such as early years care. (Independent)

CORONAVIRUS: The expert whose modelling helped instigate the first UK lockdown welcomed the new measures to slow the spread of the Omicron variant of coronavirus but said all options should be kept on the table in case it spreads very rapidly. Prof Neil Ferguson, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), said he expects to see "substantially larger numbers" of the Omicron variant in the coming days in the UK. (Guardian)

SCOTLAND: Scottish National party delegates have called for preparations to begin for a central bank to be set up after independence from the UK, a move seen as challenging the SNP leadership's relatively cautious currency strategy. SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon has said an independent Scotland would continue to use the UK pound for "as long as necessary", an approach SNP chiefs believe would promote economic stability and reassure voters. However, many members want a commitment to the rapid introduction of a new Scottish currency. The issue has added to frustration at what some in the party see as Sturgeon's overly cautious approach on how hard to push for a second referendum on leaving the UK. (FT)

EUROPE

ECB: "I think that inflation we've seen is tied to temporary phenomenons, and for a country like Italy in particular is due to energy cost increases," European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde tells Italy's Rai 3 in a live television broadcast. There is increase in demand but also geopolitical issues, [but] these factors are not structural or long lasting, "so we are almost certain that these phenomenons will disappear." On resurgence of the coronavirus pandemic: "There is a risk, but I think we've learned a lot, we know this enemy, we know the instruments we need to use and precautions we need to take, people have been vaccinated, there are new therapies."

ECB: There's no need to tighten monetary policy at this time to control inflation that's being driven by temporary factors, said European Central Bank Executive Board member Fabio Panetta. "In some countries the increase in prices has generated angst," Panetta said at an event in Florence, Italy. "The central bank is not intervening because if it did, it would create more damage than benefit. It's like an illness, not all medicines are good for all illnesses." The comments were similar to ones Panetta made Wednesday in Paris, when he said Europe was undergoing supply shocks and divided inflation into the good, bad and ugly categories. (BBG)

EU/UK: EU ministers meeting in Calais called for a new agreement with the UK on Sunday to tackle the surge of migrants trying to cross the Channel to England from France in small boats. Four days after 27 people died when a dinghy capsized, Gérald Darmanin, France's interior minister, said European authorities would work towards "an even more intense" battle against people smugglers organising boat crossings for migrants across the Channel. He added that the main driver for displaced people was the attractiveness of life in the UK. Ministers responsible for immigration from France, Belgium, the Netherlands and Germany met on Sunday afternoon to discuss ways to end small-boat crossings. (FT)

FRANCE: France's Health Ministry said on Sunday it had detected eight possible cases of the Omicron COVID-19 variant across the country after the government announced it would tighten restrictions to contain its spread. Omicron is potentially more contagious than previous variants, although experts do not know yet if it will cause more or less severe COVID-19 compared to other strains. (RTRS)

FRANCE: French President Emmanuel Macron would get 25% or more of the votes in the first round of the election if voting were held today, according to a poll carried out by Ifop-Fiducial for Le Journal du Dimanche newspaper and Sud Radio. Nationalist Marine Le Pen would win 19% to 20% of the first-round vote, depending on who else is running. Far right commentator Eric Zemmour would come third, with 14% to 15%. Macron and Zemmour haven't yet announced their candidacy for the April vote. (BBG)

ITALY: The first Italian to test positive for the omicron variant had a negative test before his flight and moved around Italy for days before his diagnosis, showing the challenge authorities face in containing the spread of the new strain. The man, who hasn't been publicly identified, had a negative PCR test before boarding a flight that originated in Maputo, Mozambique, he said in a statement on Sunday. He arrived in Rome on Nov. 12 and traveled to his home in a town north of Naples, Sky News Italia reported, without saying where it got the information. (BBG)

SWITZERLAND: Swiss voters backed the government's use of Covid-19 certificates for entry into theaters and restaurants despite vociferous campaigning by skeptics, who consider them an infringement of civil liberties. Support for the measure was at 62%. Polls for the broadcaster SRF had indicated the law, which also covers financial aid to pandemic-stricken companies, was supported by a comfortable majority. (BBG)

EAST EUROPE: Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda said on Sunday that the NATO military alliance needed to adjust its stance towards Belarus, whose military, he said, was becoming more integrated with Russian armed forces. Nauseda told a news conference with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Vilnius that he was worried by the "total military integration" of Belarus into Russian military structures. (RTRS)

CZECHIA: Czech President Milos Zeman appointed fiscally and socially conservative Petr Fiala as the next prime minister as the country grapples with surging inflation and one of the world's worst coronavirus outbreaks. (BBG)

CZECHIA: The Czech central bank is likely to extend its campaign of interest-rate increases to prevent surging inflation from getting entrenched, according to Governor Jiri Rusnok. Policy makers must send a "clear and explicit signal that we don't intend to tolerate an anchoring of today's elevated inflation expectations," Rusnok said in an interview with Respekt magazine published on Sunday. His tone was more hawkish than when he told Reuters on Thursday that the pace of tightening could now slow and he could even "imagine" leaving rates unchanged next month. (BBG)

GAS: The German government has urged members of Congress not to sanction the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, arguing that doing so will "weaken" U.S. credibility and "ultimately damage transatlantic unity," according to documents obtained by Axios. Why it matters: At a time when roughly 100,000 Russian troops are massing at its border, Ukraine views Nord Stream 2 as an existential threat to its security. The pipeline would circumvent Ukrainian transit infrastructure and deliver Russian gas directly to Germany, eliminating one of the last deterrents Ukraine has against an invasion. (Axios)

U.S.

CORONAVIRUS: President Biden will provide an update on his administration's response to the new COVID-19 omicron variant on Monday, according to the White House, after Dr. Anthony Fauci said it will take roughly two weeks to gather more information on the new strain. (Hill)

CORONAVIRUS: Anthony Fauci said on Sunday that the omicron COVID-19 variant will "inevitably" hit the United States, noting that it has already been detected in several other countries. During an interview on ABC's "This Week," anchor George Stephanopoulos asked Fauci if the newly detected variant had been detected by officials in the U.S. "No, we have not, George, and we have a pretty good surveillance system. But as we all know, when you have a virus that has already gone to multiple countries, inevitably it will be here," Fauci, who serves as President Biden's chief medical adviser, answered. (Hill)

CORONAVIRUS: President Biden's chief medical adviser, Anthony Fauci, on Sunday called the newly discovered omicron variant of COVID-19 "troublesome," and raised concerns that it "might evade immune protection." "Right now, what we have is we have the window into the mutations that are in this new variant. And they are troublesome in the fact that there are about 32 or more variants in that very important spike protein of the virus, which is the business end of the virus," Fauci said during an interview on NBC's "Meet the Press." (Hill)

CORONAVIRUS: Dr. Francis Collins, director of the National Institutes of Health in the United States, emphasized that there is no data yet that suggests the new variant causes more serious illness than previous COVID-19 variants. "I do think it's more contagious when you look at how rapidly it spread through multiple districts in South Africa. It has the earmarks therefore of being particularly likely to spread from one person to another. … What we don't know is whether it can compete with delta," Collins said on CNN's "State of the Union." (AP)

CORONAVIRUS: U.S. health officials have not imposed any new screening or tracing requirements in response to the newly discovered Omicron COVID-19 variant that prompted the Biden administration to restrict travel from southern Africa. Starting Monday, the United States will bar most foreign travelers from South Africa and seven other southern African countries in an attempt to curb the spread of the Omicron variant, which was first identified in South Africa on Friday. However, the travel restrictions do not ban flights or apply to U.S. citizens and lawful U.S. permanent residents. Until the ban starts at 12:01 ET Monday, flights from South Africa have continued to carry foreign nationals. (RTRS)

FUEL: Americans will see prices at the pump fall "before long," President Joe Biden said after tapping U.S. oil reserves to ease price pressures and risk a feud with OPEC. In a tweet Saturday while the president was in Nantucket, he said the U.S. effort to ease gasoline prices spans the globe but will soon reach stations across the U.S. "It will take time, but before long you should see the price of gas drop where you fill up your tank," he said. Biden announced this week that he'd release 50 million barrels of reserves -- in addition to similar moves by China, Japan, India, South Korea and the U.K. -- after OPEC and its allies balked at raising production. It marked an unprecedented coordinated effort to reduce prices and ease OPEC's stranglehold on supply. (BBG)

OTHER

CORONAVIRUS: While polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests can detect Omicron infections, studies are looking to whether the Covid-19 variant of concern has any impact on other test types, the WHO said on Sunday (Nov 28). "The widely used PCR tests continue to detect infection, including infection with Omicron, as we have seen with other variants," the World Health Organisation (WHO) said in an update on what is known so far about the new variant. "Studies are ongoing to determine whether there is any impact on other types of tests, including rapid antigen detection tests." (AFP)

CORONAVIRUS: Moderna Inc. Chief Medical Officer Paul Burton said he suspects the new omicron coronavirus variant may elude current vaccines, and if so, a reformulated shot could be available early in the new year. "We should know about the ability of the current vaccine to provide protection in the next couple of weeks," Burton said Sunday on the BBC's "Andrew Marr Show." "If we have to make a brand new vaccine, I think that's going to be early 2022 before that's really going to be available in large quantities," he said. "The remarkable thing about the mRNA vaccines, the Moderna platform, is that we can move very fast," he said. The Cambridge, Massachusetts-based biotech company mobilized "hundreds" of staff early on Thursday, Thanksgiving Day in the U.S., after news of the omicron variant spread. Protection should still exist, depending on how long ago a person was vaccinated, and for now the best advice is to take one of the current Covid-19 vaccines, Burton said. (BBG)

CORONAVIRUS: A South African doctor who was one of the first to suspect a different coronavirus strain among patients said on Sunday that symptoms of the Omicron variant were so far mild and could be treated at home. Dr. Angelique Coetzee, a private practitioner and chair of South African Medical Association, told Reuters that on Nov. 18 she noticed seven patients at her clinic who had symptoms different from the dominant Delta variant, albeit "very mild". Coetzee said a patient on Nov. 18 reported at her clinic being "extremely fatigued" for two days with body aches and headache. "Symptoms at that stage was very much related to normal viral infection. And because we haven't seen COVID-19 for the past eight to 10 weeks, we decided to test," she said, adding that the patient and his family turned out to be positive. (RTRS)

CORONAVIRUS: The World Health Organization is working with researchers around the globe to better understand the new coronavirus variant after health experts in South Africa, where omicron was first detected, said it appeared to cause only mild symptoms. There's no information to suggest that symptoms associated with omicron differ from those caused by other, the Geneva-based WHO cautioned Sunday. Some of the earliest reported infections occurred among college students who are more likely to experience less severe illness from Covid-19, and understanding the level of severity of the new strain "will take days to several weeks," the WHO said. "We don't have enough data to determine vaccine effectiveness against omicron or disease severity, so any claims about either at this stage are not evidence-based," said Raina MacIntyre, professor of global biosecurity at the University of New South Wales in Sydney. "So far, the virus has not mutated to become less severe -- in fact the opposite." (BBG)

CORONAVIRUS: Countries were racing to contain the Omicron coronavirus variant by restricting travel and imposing new quarantine measures as new cases were detected around the world on Sunday. The US, EU, UK, Australia, Canada, Saudi Arabia and South Korea all limited travel or ordered quarantines on individuals travelling to and from southern Africa while others, such as Singapore and India, signalled they were reviewing restrictions. Switzerland has also restricted travel to non-African nations where cases have been detected. Israel became the first country to close its borders to foreigners after one case was confirmed and several more were suspected. Returning travellers will be forced to quarantine, monitored by the army and domestic intelligence agency Shin Bet. (FT)

GEOPOLITICS: China sent the biggest sortie of warplanes toward Taiwan in more than seven weeks after a U.S. lawmaker defied a Chinese demand that she abandon a trip to the island. Twenty-seven Chinese aircraft, including eight J-16 fighter jets, entered Taiwan's southwest air defense identification zone Sunday, according to a statement from the Ministry of National Defense in Taipei. (BBG)

JAPAN: Japan will ban the entry of all new foreign visitors from Nov. 30 due to concern about the omicron Covid-19 variant, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida told reporters in Tokyo. Measure represents an emergency move that will be put in place until more about the variant is known. (BBG)

AUSTRALIA: Prime Minister Scott Morrison has confirmed that national cabinet will meet tomorrow afternoon and may extend into the evening as premiers and chief ministers discuss the new Omicron COVID variant. Speaking in question time, Mr Morrison is facing repeated questions about quarantine facilities. That was a major part of Labor's attack earlier in the pandemic that the party is reviving now that there is a new variant of concern. (SMH)

RBNZ: The new Covid-19 variant that has unsettled financial markets would need to have a dramatic economic impact to deter the Reserve Bank of New Zealand from continuing to raise interest rates, its chief economist Yuong Ha said Monday. A day after the RBNZ's Nov. 24 rate decision, South Africa raised the alarm about a new apparently fast-spreading Covid-19 variant, now known as Omicron, that has alarmed health experts and sparked volatility in stocks, market interest rates and currencies. But Mr. Ha told The Wall Street Journal that the RBNZ would have raised the cash rate even if Omicron had become known before the central bank's policy statement. He said the situation now is different from August, when the RBNZ had delayed a rate increase due to a Delta variant outbreak that followed months of zero Covid-19 cases. A lengthy lockdown in New Zealand's largest city, Auckland, failed to stamp out the virus and the government called it quits on its strategy of eliminating the virus. "The difference is we are now transitioning into a new Covid protection framework," Mr. Ha said, referring to the New Zealand government's traffic-light system for managing the spread of Covid-19. "If Omicron turns out to be a massive game changer, that might be kind of like August where we just took a pause," Mr. Ha said. (WSJ)

RBNZ: MNI INTERVIEW: Rates Above 2% "Restrictive"- RBNZ's Bascand

  • The Reserve Bank of New Zealand sees neutral interest rates at "around 2%" and monetary policy will have a restrictive impact on the economy when the bank raises them above this level late next year on current projections, according to outgoing RBNZ Deputy Governor Geoff Bascand - on MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com.

NEW ZEALAND: Most of the country will start in the "orange" traffic light setting when the new Covid-19 protection framework kicks in this Friday. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern revealed the initial settings for the new system on Monday at her post-Cabinet press conference. No area will start in Green, as the Government have said the risk of the outbreak escaping Auckland is too high for that. (Stuff)

SOUTH KOREA: South Korea will closely monitor global and local financial markets for any impact from the emergence of the omicron variant of the coronavirus and take action in a preemptive and active manner, if necessary, to reduce market volatility, a senior finance ministry official said Monday. First Vice Finance Minister Lee Eog-weon made the remark at a meeting to discuss macroeconomic issues amid concerns that financial market volatility could intensify due to the spread of the potentially more transmissible omicron variant. "It is hard to exclude the possibility that omicron could serve as a factor of uncertainty that could expand financial market volatility at home and abroad in the short term due to lack of information," Lee said. "We will monitor local and foreign financial markets 24 hours a day," Lee added. "If necessary, we will respond in a preemptive and active manner in cooperation with relevant agencies." (Yonhap)

ASEAN: The United States is planning to host an in-person summit of President Joe Biden and leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in Washington in January, ASEAN sources have said. The summit would be the first face-to-face meeting of Biden and ASEAN leaders since he took office in January this year, as Washington is emphasizing its commitment to the region amid China's growing clout. (Kyodo)

CANADA: There are two confirmed cases of the omicron variant of the coronavirus in Ottawa, the Ontario government announced Sunday. These are the first cases of the omicron variant confirmed in Canada, coming just days after the country implemented new travel restrictions on foreign nationals who had visited several countries in southern Africa over the preceding two weeks. (CBC)

BRAZIL: Brazil's foreign minister has attacked the EU for "trade protectionism" and "myopia" after the bloc proposed a ban on agricultural imports from deforested areas, singling out France for particular criticism over farm subsidies. Brussels proposed a law this month which would force companies selling beef, soy, palm oil, coffee, cocoa and wood into the bloc to prove the commodities were not produced on land that had been deforested or degraded after 2020. (FT)

ARGENTINA: Argentina's Vice President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner broke her silence on a deal between the country and the International Monetary Fund, saying the approval will be the responsibility of the entire congress. "It's not Cristina," she said in an open letter posted on her website. "It's the 257 legislators and 72 senators who have the legal, political and historical responsibility to approve or not how and under what conditions the world's largest debt in history with the IMF is going to get paid." (BBG)

CHILE: Leftist candidate Gabriel Boric was leading conservative Jose Antonio Kast in the latest poll released on Sunday ahead of the second round of Chile's presidential election on Dec. 19. The poll, carried out Nov. 23-26, showed likely voters favored Boric, representing a coalition including the leftist Frente Amplio and the local Communist Party, with 53.9% support against Kast's 31.2%. (RTRS)

SOUTH AFRICA: South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said on Sunday that authorities were considering making COVID-19 shots compulsory for certain places and activities, as a rise in infections linked to a new variant threatens to become a fourth wave. Only a quarter of South Africans are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 despite a sufficient supply of doses, owing partly to logistical problems getting them out to rural areas, but also to vaccine hesitancy and apathy among the population. (RTRS)

SOUTH AFRICA: The newly named Omicron coronavirus variant has been found in all South African provinces, with it's biggest outbreak currently in the economic hub of Gauteng, President Cyril Ramaphosa says in televised address. "If cases continue to climb, we can expect to enter a fourth wave of infections within the next few weeks, if not sooner." (BBG)

IRAN: The hardline Iranian diplomat heading to Vienna this week for talks on the resumption of the nuclear accord with world powers once described that same deal as a "complete loss" and chastised his country's negotiators for their "weakness". Ali Bagheri Kani will on Monday lead the Iranian delegation in indirect talks with the US intended to revive the moribund accord. Given the new hardline administration in Iran, Bagheri's western counterparts will be seeking to gauge whether Iran's top nuclear negotiator and his political masters in Tehran are serious about striking an agreement. (FT)

RUSSIA: Russia's ambassador to the United States said that 27 more Russian diplomats and their families were expelled from the United States and would leave on Jan. 30. "Our diplomats are being expelled...A large group of my comrades, 27 people with families, will leave us on January 30... We are facing a serious staff shortage," Ambassador Anatoly Antonov said in a video interview for the Soloviev Live Youtube channel aired late on Saturday. (RTRS)

CHINA

PBOC: The People's Bank of China should continue to implement prudent monetary policies with sufficient liquidity and structural monetary tools while monitoring the impact of possible monetary tightening in Europe and the U.S., Yicai.com reported citing Wang Xin, the director-general of PBOC's Research Bureau. The central bank can also create favorable liquidity for special bond issuance aiming to replenish banks' capital, Wang was cited as saying. The PBOC can better promote social investment in low-carbon transformation and green industries to create more job opportunities and vigorously develop green financial products such as green municipal bonds, Wang was cited as saying by the newspaper. (MNI)

ECONOMY: China should adopt more proactive macroeconomic policies to deal with the challenges as the Omicron threatens global recovery, said the Securities Times in a commentary. China's monetary and fiscal policies this year are relatively restrained, leaving enough policy space for next year, the newspaper said. China should adhere to strict epidemic control measures to ensure a more positive economic outlook next year and avoid interrupting the economic development plan, the newspaper said. New drivers of economic growth will continue to emerge with major projects of new energy and high-tech infrastructure in the country's 14th Five-Year Plan kicking off, the newspaper added. (MNI)

ECONOMY: China can make more use of its advantages having effective epidemic control and large policy space to maintain the momentum of growth even as the U.S. tilts toward a tighter monetary policy, wrote Guan Tao, the chief global economist of BOC International and a former forex regulatory official in a commentary on Yicai.com. The central bank should further increase the flexibility of the yuan, as freer two-way movement helps absorb internal and external shocks and balance the market, said Guan. China should also continue to prudently promote the two-way opening of its financial sector and guide companies to better manage currency exchange risks and foreign debt repayment, Guan added. (MNI)

CORONAVIRUS: China could face more than 630,000 COVID-19 infections a day if it dropped its zero-tolerance policies by lifting travel curbs, according to a study by Peking University mathematicians. In the report published in China CDC Weekly by the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, the mathematicians said China could not afford to lift travel restrictions without more efficient vaccinations or specific treatments. Using data for August from the United States, Britain, Spain, France and Israel, the mathematicians assessed the potential results if China adopted the same pandemic control tactics as those countries. (RTRS)

MILITARY: China has expanded its combat forces to adapt to changing risks – despite a years-long push to streamline the People's Liberation Army, according a Communist Party publication. In a book of commentaries published in mid-November by party mouthpiece People's Daily, military commentator Zhong Xin said the PLA had been "optimising" its personnel structure by deploying more troops to combat roles while cutting 300,000 positions. The source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said most of the 300,000 positions shed were from non-combat units, including the now defunct general political, general logistics and general armaments departments, the five army groups, as well staff in veterans homes. The units that gained personnel came under the air force, the rocket force, and the strategic supporting force, among others, the source said. (SCMP)

OVERNIGHT DATA

CHINA OCT INDUSTRIAL PROFITS +24.6% Y/Y; SEP +16.3%

JAPAN OCT RETAIL SALES +0.9% Y/Y; MEDIAN +1.1%; SEP -0.5%
JAPAN OCT RETAIL SALES +1.1% M/M; MEDIAN +1.0%; SEP +2.8%
JAPAN OCT DEPT STORE, SUPERMARKET SALES +0.9% Y/Y; MEDIAN +1.0%; SEP -1.3%

AUSTRALIA Q3 COMPANY OPERATING PROFIT +4.0% Q/Q; MEDIAN +2.3%; Q2 +7.1%
AUSTRALIA Q3 INVENTORIES -1.9% Q/Q; MEDIAN 0.0%; Q2 +0.3%

SOUTH KOREA OCT RETAIL SALES +14.4% Y/Y; SEP +8.2%
SOUTH KOREA OCT DEPT STORE SALES +21.0% Y/Y; SEP +24.3%
SOUTH KOREA OCT DISCOUNT STORE SALES +1.4% Y/Y; SEP -13.3%

CHINA MARKETS

PBOC NET INJECTS CNY50BN VIA OMOS MONDAY

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) injected CNY100 billion via 7-day reverse repos with the rates unchanged at 2.2% on Monday. The operation has led to a net injection of CNY50 billion after offsetting the maturity of CNY50billion repos today, according to Wind Information.

  • The operation aims to keep liquidity reasonable and ample, the PBOC said on its website.
  • The 7-day weighted average interbank repo rate for depository institutions (DR007) fell to 2.2227% at 09:40 am local time from the close of 2.2600% on Friday.
  • The CFETS-NEX money-market sentiment index closed at 45 on Friday, flat from the close on Thursday.

PBOC SETS YUAN CENTRAL PARITY AT 6.3872 MON VS 6.3936

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the dollar-yuan central parity rate lower at 6.3872 on Monday, compared with 6.3936 set on Friday.

MARKETS

SNAPSHOT: Stabilisation

Below gives key levels of markets in the second half of the Asia-Pac session:

  • Nikkei 225 down 507.16 points at 28244.46
  • ASX 200 down 39.649 points at 7239.7
  • Shanghai Comp. down 12.577 points at 3551.512
  • JGB 10-Yr future up 7 ticks at 151.79, yield down 0.3bp at 0.071%
  • Aussie 10-Yr future down 0.5 ticks at 98.245, yield up 0.6bp at 1.742%
  • U.S. 10-Yr future -0-11 at 130-27, yield up 5.29bp at 1.526%
  • WTI crude up $2.71 at $70.86, Gold down $7.27 at $1795.34
  • USD/JPY up 2 pips at Y113.4
  • OMICRON CONTINUES TO SPREAD; BORDER RESTRICTIONS GET TIGHTENED
  • SOUTH AFRICAN DOCTOR SAYS PATIENTS WITH OMICRON VARIANT HAVE "VERY MILD" SYMPTOMS (RTRS)
  • MODERNA SAYS NEW VACCINE FOR OMICRON MAY BE READY IN EARLY 2022 (BBG)
  • PCRS DETECT OMICRON COVID-19 VARIANT, STUDIES UNDER WAY FOR OTHER TESTS (AFP)
  • WHO URGES CAUTION AS RESEARCHES RUSH TO LEARN MORE ABOUT OMICRON
  • LAGARDE, PANETTA SEE INFLATION SPIKE TIED TO TEMPORARY FACTORS

BOND SUMMARY: Risk Stabilisation Saps Strength From Core FI But JGBs Hold Firm

Some positive musings on the Omicron coronavirus variant helped stabilise risk sentiment, applying pressure to core FI space. Suggestions that the new variant has been presenting with mild symptoms so far and upbeat comments from vaccine developers prompted participants to reassess the situation, even as the WHO urged caution and a number of countries tightened border controls to slow the spread of Omicron.

  • Risk stabilisation sent T-Notes lower at the re-open, with the contract last seen -0-12 at 130-25+, moving further away from Friday's high of 131-10+. Cash U.S. Tsy yields climbed across the curve and last sit 4.3-6.8bp higher, with belly underperforming. Eurodollar futures run +0.5 to -6.0 ticks through the reds. The local data docket is fairly empty today, but speeches are due from Fed's Powell, Williams & Bowman.
  • JGB futures defied broader market impetus and crept higher, as Japan PM unveiled the decision to ban entry of virtually all foreign visitors from Nov 30 until further notice. Cash JGB yields are little changed across the curve, albeit the belly outperforms at the margin. Japan's retail sales posted the second monthly increase in a row, while the BoJ offered to buy 3-10 Year JGBs as part of their Rinban ops.
  • Cash ACGB curve steepened a tad and yields last trade -0.5bp to +2.3bp, with 10s lagging. Aussie bond futures went offered and YM now trades unch., with XM -2.5. Bills trade +1 to -2 ticks through the reds. Australia's company operating profit beat expectations, but inventories unexpectedly shrank in Q3. The RBA offered to buy A$1.6bn of ACGBs with maturities of Apr '24 to Nov '28, but excluding ACGB Apr '24.

BOJ: BoJ Makes Rinban Purchase Offers

The BoJ offers to buy a total of Y875bn of JGBs from the market:

  • Y450bn worth of JGBs with 3-5 Years until maturity
  • Y425bn worth of JGBs with 5-10 Years until maturity

FOREX: Dust Settles

Reassuring reports surrounding the Omicron variant of the Covid-19 virus brought relief to riskier currencies after sharp sell-offs seen Friday, despite an expected round of travel restrictions implemented over the weekend and considerable uncertainty surrounding the threat posed by Omicron. Two South African health experts suggested that the symptoms caused by the new variant have been mild so far. The WHO have urged caution on that front, but also confirmed that the current PCR tests can detect infection with Omicron. Meanwhile, vaccine developers are racing to produce an adjusted product, with Moderna noting that they could release an updated vaccine as soon as early next year.

  • JPY and CHF unwound some of their Friday gains amid reduced demand for safe havens. USD/JPY bounced from its 50-DMA, which limited losses ahead of the weekend, while Japan banned entry of all new foreigners.
  • Riskier currencies went bid, with a recovery in crude oil prices lending support to commodity-tied FX. The NZD ignored comments from RBNZ Chief Economist Ha, who told the WSJ that the MPC could press pause on tightening if Omicron proves to be a "massive game changer."
  • The EUR went offered across the board in a reversal of Friday surge. In their weekend comments, ECB's Lagarde and Panetta argued that the spike in inflation is linked to temporary factors.
  • The weakness in Eurozone's single currency lent support to the DXY. Nevertheless, spot USD/CNH sank amid improvement in market sentiment.
  • German preliminary CPI data, Swedish GDP & final EZ consumer confidence headline today's data docket. There is plenty of central bank speak coming up from members of the Fed, ECB & Riksbank.

FOREX OPTIONS: Expiries for Nov29 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)

  • EUR/USD: $1.1150-60(E529mln), $1.1250(E583mln), $1.1265-75(E582mln), $1.1300(E1.4bln)
  • USD/JPY: Y113.20-25($561mln), Y115.20-25($1.1bln)
  • AUD/USD: $0.7100(A$563mln)
  • USD/CAD: C$1.2600($1.2bln)

UP TODAY (Times GMT/Local)

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