MNI GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD: BOC, ECB In Focus

Bank of Canada to extend taper (Wednesday)

• The Bank of Canada is universally expected to hold a record low 0.25% interest rate Wednesday, and most investors see QE being slimmed down from CAD2 billion a week to either CAD1 billion a week or CAD4 billion-CAD5 billion a month, a pace that would effectively mark the "reinvestment" phase that stabilizes the balance sheet.
• Governor Tiff Macklem will also likely raise inflation forecasts and cut growth predictions, affirming his view conditions for a rate hike won't be in place until 2h 2022. The press conference will likely be stocked with questions about why he sees most price pressure as short-lived.

• The European Central Bank will likely leave policy unchanged Thursday, as it looks to use an accelerated programme of meetings through November to position itself for a possible recalibration of its tools in December.
• The overall PEPP envelope will be maintained at EUR1.85 trillion and the end date will still be March 2022 -- for now at least.
• Outside policy decisions, the meeting and subsequent press conference will likely be a communications challenge for President Christine Lagarde as inflation continues to rise and looks set to be more transitory that originally thought

• The first estimate of U.S. Q3 real GDP growth is expected to slow to 2.5% from 6.7% in Q2, as the Delta variant and supply bottlenecks slowed spending.
• The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model currently predicts real personal consumption expenditures growth at just 0.4% in the summer months.
• Spending and growth is expected to rebound strongly this quarter.