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MNI Norges Bank Preview: September 2023: Another 25bp Expected

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • A 25bps hike could be the last of the cycle, putting peak rates at 4.25%
  • Softer food prices should give board more confidence that inflation peak has passed
  • While off the August highs, I-44 exchange rate is less problematic for rate path ahead
Our full preview including a summary of sell-side views can be found here:

MNI Norges Bank Preview Sep 23.pdf

The Bank have guided for another 25bps rate hike at the September meeting, and the as-expected fluctuations in inflation, FX and economic growth make for a straight-forward decision on the headline deposit rate, but a more complicated conversation for guiding policy thereafter.

Figure: Peak rate in June was boosted to 4.21%

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