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MNI Norges Bank Review - March 2024: Last Hawk Out The Door?

The Norges Bank held policy rates at 4.50%, as unanimously expected. The updated policy path saw only minor changes through 2024.

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • The Norges Bank held policy rates at 4.50%, as unanimously expected. The updated policy path saw only minor changes through 2024, with the Norges Bank’s guidance re-iterating that rates will be “maintained at the current level for some time ahead”.
  • The MNI Markets Team had expected a small downward revision to the rate path, so we were surprised that the Q2 2024 rate was only revised 4bps lower to 4.51%, while the 2025/2026 path was revised up to 10bps higher.
  • At the press conference, Governor Wolden-Bache confirmed that the first rate cut of 2024 would likely come at the September meeting (rather than November or December).

For our full review, including a summary of 9 sell-side views, see the PDF below:

MNI Norges Bank Review - 2024-03.pdf



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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • The Norges Bank held policy rates at 4.50%, as unanimously expected. The updated policy path saw only minor changes through 2024, with the Norges Bank’s guidance re-iterating that rates will be “maintained at the current level for some time ahead”.
  • The MNI Markets Team had expected a small downward revision to the rate path, so we were surprised that the Q2 2024 rate was only revised 4bps lower to 4.51%, while the 2025/2026 path was revised up to 10bps higher.
  • At the press conference, Governor Wolden-Bache confirmed that the first rate cut of 2024 would likely come at the September meeting (rather than November or December).

For our full review, including a summary of 9 sell-side views, see the PDF below:

MNI Norges Bank Review - 2024-03.pdf