Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
by Tom Lake
In recent weeks the outlook for the German federal election has changed markedly, with opinion polls indicating that the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) of incumbent chancellor, Angela Merkel, looks set to hold onto the chancellery. The increasing likelihood of the CDU remaining the senior partner in any coalition after the 26 September election points towards more policy continuity at the federal level with regards to government spending, attitudes towards the EU, and on relations with major powers such as the United States and Russia.
Main Takeaways
- After a surge in polling support in April and May, the Green party has seen its number slip as voters swing back towards the centre-right Christian Democratic Union and its chancellor candidate Armin Laschet, who now sits as the frontrunner to take over from Angela Merkel in September.
- Of the four most likely post-election governing coalitions based on current polling, the CDU/CSU would be on course to lead three of them. This in turn would support broad policy continuity, with Laschet expressing a commitment to returning to a 'black zero' balanced budget.
- The wild-card scenario at present would be the emergence of a 'traffic light' coalition of the Greens, Social Democrats, and Free Democrats. While unlikely, this government would likely push Germany in a more fiscally expansive direction compared to the Merkel era.
Chart 1. Opinion Poll, Preferred Chancellor % and 3-Poll Moving Average, With 'Neither'/Don't Know' (RHS)
Source: Forsa, INSA, FGW, Infratest dimap, MNI. N.b. Each dot indicates individual poll.
Full article PDF can be found here:
MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS-CDU Ahead In German Election Race.pdf
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.