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MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS-Governments At Risk Report Sep '21

Canada, Germany, and Japan see overall GRI scores climb on the back of election uncertainty; fears of political violence in Brazil sees already high risk score increase further.

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In this monthly Governments At Risk Report, MNI's Political Risk team use our proprietary Governments at Risk Index (GRI) to identify those governments in developed and emerging markets most at risk of collapse or ouster. The GRI – based on subjective assessments by our analysts – provides a reliable, timely, and quantifiable assessment of the risk of a government leaving office, which can often presage changes in policy that influence FI and FX markets.

  • Each country included in the GRI is assigned a score out of 40, with the highest scores indicating high risk of a change of government, while a low score indicates that the government is facing little prospect of leaving office in the near future.
  • This month's most significant change in GRI scores have largely been driven by election dynamics, with Canada's risk score rising as the prospect of a majority for PM Justin Trudeau's Liberals recedes.
  • Meanwhile, in Germany the rise of the SPD in polls increases the prospect of the centre-right CDU not forming part of the next coalition and raises the risk of a left-wing SPD-Green-Linke government coming to power.
Link to PDF report attached below:

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS-Governments At Risk Report Sep 2021.pdf

Chart 1. Change in Overall GRI Scores

Source: MNI