MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US Daily Brief 07-02-22

Executive Summary:

• 13:30 ET 18:30 GMT President Joe Biden will host German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at the White House to discuss tensions between Russia and Ukraine. The leaders will ‘discuss their shared commitment to both ongoing diplomacy and joint efforts to deter further Russian aggression against Ukraine.’ Scholz has received criticism for a soft response to Russia and lack of support for a coordinated Western diplomatic response to the Ukraine crisis. Biden is likely to push Scholz for a commitment to Nordstream 2 sanctions and more financial, and military support for NATO.
• The information battle between the White House and the Kremlin has continued over the weekend. The White House believes that the Kremlin is operating a strategy of subterfuge and disinformation and by releasing intelligence reports to counter Russian disinformation they can remove a possible pathway for Moscow to invade Ukraine.
• Some analysts are suggesting that the Democrats may be laying the groundwork for a better-than-expected performance in November’s midterms. Several broad shifts in the political environment may prevent a ‘red wave’ in the House.
• The censure of two GOP representatives has demonstrated how influential Donald Trump remains within the Republican party. The National Republican Committee vote on Friday which censured Liz Cheney (R-WY) and Adam Kinzinger (R-IL) and appeared to absolve the violence on January 6, 2020, is part of an ongoing ‘loyalty test’ within the GOP.
• The US State Department said on Friday it was waiving some sanctions on Iran’s nuclear programme. The waiver will allow for international companies to participate in Iran’s civilian nuclear programme and is considered a necessary step for reincorporating Iran into the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US Daily Brief 07-02-22 .pdf