MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US Daily Brief 22-07-22

Executive Summary:

• "Folks, I'm doing great:" President Biden tests positive for COVID-19 for the first time.
• The US State Department has welcomed a deal between Turkey, Ukraine, Russia, and the United Nations on grain corridors, expected to be signed today.
• The January 6 Committee has portrayed former President Donald Trump as indifferent to the attack on the Capitol and reluctant to concede electoral defeat.
• The Democrat candidate for the crucial Pennsylvania Senate race, John Fetterman is slowly re-entering the campaign trail after being side-lined for two months by a stroke.
• Former President Trump's “top allies” are well advanced in plans “to radically reshape the federal government if he is re-elected.”
• Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo told the Aspen Security Forum in Colorado that the US cannot continue to rely on Taiwan for semiconductors and Congress must pass CHIPS-Plus.
• "A test for what has long been one of the closest US partnerships in Latin America:" White House Deputy NSA Jon Finer is at the head of a delegation in Colombia for two days of talks with outgoing President Ivan Duque and leftist President-Elect Gustavo Petro.
• Mexico President Andrés Manuel López Obrador is not backing down in a trade dispute with the US and Canada.
• The Senate is expected to easily pass a vote on Sweden and Finland’s request to join NATO next week.
• The State Department has reacted sceptically to an Iranian statement suggesting Tehran is willing to return to the nuclear negotiating table.
• Poll of the Day: "President Biden’s net approval rating (bad!) and the Democratic Party’s position in congressional polling (not that bad!)” Which is more important?

Please find the full article attached below:

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US Daily Brief 22-07-22 .pdf

Figure 1: Presidential approval vs generic ballot

Washington Post, RealClearPolitics, FiveThirtyEight